From: Modeling the Cost-effectiveness of Esophageal Cancer Screening in China

Parameter | Input | SA range | Distribution | References |
---|---|---|---|---|

Transition probability | ||||

Normal to LGIN | 0.0000 | – | – | – |

LGIN to normal | 0.1427 | 0.1142–0.1712 | Beta | [32,33,34,35,36,37,38] |

IC to DFS_IC | 0.9363-d_nor | 0.7490–0.9363 | Beta | [17] |

IC progress | 0.0534 | 0.0427–0.0641 | Beta | [17, 47,48,49] |

SM proportion | 0.2143 | 0.1714–0.2572 | Dirichlet | Screening |

Mod proportion | 0.5714 | 0.4571–0.6857 | Dirichlet | |

Adv proportion | 0.2143 | 0.1714–0.2572 | Dirichlet | |

DFS_IC to IC | 0.0069 | 0.0055–0.0083 | Beta | [50] |

DFS_IC progress | 0.0268 | 0.0214–0.0322 | Beta | [51] |

SM proportion | 0.5556 | 0.4445–0.6667 | Dirichlet | [51] |

Mod proportion | 0.4444 | 0.3555–0.5333 | Dirichlet | [51] |

Adv proportion | 0.0000 | 0.0000–0.0000 | Dirichlet | [51] |

SM to DFS_SM | 0.9051-d_nor | 0.7241–1.0000 | Beta | [52] |

SM progress | 0.1386 | 0.1109–0.1663 | Beta | [53, 54] |

Mod proportion | 0.7562 | 0.6050–0.9074 | Beta | [48, 55,56,57,58,59,60,61] |

Adv proportion | 0.2438 | 0.1950–0.2926 | Beta | [48, 55,56,57,58,59,60,61] |

DFS_SM to SM | 0.0393 | 0.0314–0.0472 | Beta | [62] |

DFS_SM progress | 0.0883 | 0.0706–0.1060 | Beta | [53] |

Mod proportion | 0.7562 | 0.6050–0.9074 | Beta | [48, 55,56,57,58,59,60,61] |

Adv proportion | 0.2438 | 0.1950–0.2926 | Beta | [48, 55,56,57,58,59,60,61] |

Mod to DFS_Mod | 0.5930-d_nor | 0.4744–0.7116 | Beta | [63] |

Mod to Adv | 0.0317 | 0.0254–0.0380 | Beta | [64] |

DFS_Mod to Mod | 0.0425 | 0.0340–0.0510 | Dirichlet | [64] |

DFS_Mod to Adv | 0.0097 | 0.0078–0.0116 | Dirichlet | [64] |

Adv to PFS | 0.1967-d_nor | 0.1574–0.2360 | Dirichlet | [65] |

PFS progress | 0.7002 | 0.5602–0.8402 | Dirichlet | [66] |

RR | 0.7000 | 0.5600–0.8400 | Lognormal | [15] |

EC state-specific death probability (age ≤ 65 years) | ||||

SM | 0.0994 | 0.0795–0.1193 | Beta | [67] |

DFS_SM | 0.0633 | 0.0506–0.0760 | Beta | [67] |

Mod | 0.2988 | 0.2390–0.3586 | Beta | [54] |

DFS_Mod | 0.1902 | 0.1522–0.2282 | Beta | [54] |

Adv | 0.4613 | 0.3690–0.5536 | Beta | [66, 68] |

PFS | 0.4303 | 0.3442–0.5164 | Beta | [66, 68] |

Risk ratios of EC death probability among patients aged more than 65 years compared to patients aged less than 65 years | ||||

RR_SM/RR_DFS_SM | 1.30 | 1.20–1.50 | Lognormal | [69] |

RR_Mod/RR_DFS_Mod | 1.20 | 1.10–1.30 | Lognormal | [69] |

RR_Adv/RR_PFS_Adv | 1.16 | 1.10–1.20 | Lognormal | [69] |