Fig. 1

A). 30-day decision tree for short-term AEs* and B) four-health-state Markov model to capture longer term outcomes of patients post TAVI or SAVR intervention. *early adverse events (AEs) linked to each procedure were captured using the 30-day AE dataset from the PARTNER 3 trial (2). Transition probabilities between health states were informed by published literature: PARTNER 3 (2) and Evolut low risk [32] trials for ‘alive and well’ to ‘AF’; and a Dutch community-based cohort study (PREVEND) for ‘alive and well’ to ‘disabling stroke’ and ‘AF’ to ‘disabling stroke’ [20]. AE, adverse event; AF, atrial fibrillation; SAVR: surgical aortic valve replacement; TAVI: transcatheter aortic valve implantation