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Table 2 Transition probabilities from State A (Cancer free) to State B (Loco-regional recurrence) (tpA2B)

From: In situ breast cancer surgeries in Sweden: lumpectomy or mastectomy?—a cost-effectiveness analysis over a 30-Year period using Markov model

Incidence of local/regional recurrence by surgical methods and years of followed-up (per 1000 person-year) (Based on Fisher et al. (2002) [9] and Wärnberg et al. (2014) [17])

Years of followed-up

Mastectomy

Lumpectomy without irradiation

Lumpectomy with irradiation

0–5

56.46

71.70

36.90

5–10

26.77

34.00

24.30

10–30

7.09

9.00

8.30

Annual transition probabilities from State A to State B (tpA2B)*

Years of followed-up

Mastectomy

Lumpectomy without irradiation

Lumpectomy with irradiation

0–5

0.055

0.069

0.036

5–10

0.026

0.033

0.024

10–30

0.007

0.009

0.008

  1. *tpA2B were calculated from incidence rate of loco-regional recurrence using the formula: p = 1 – exp(-rt), recommended by Briggs et al. (2006) [30]