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Table 7 Health and economic impact for various scenarios included in sensitivity analysis

From: The health and economic impact and cost effectiveness of interventions for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in Kenya: a stakeholder engaged modelling study

Intervention

20% SSB Tax

20% SSB Tax base case setting but

10% SSB Tax

30% SSB Tax

Sensitivity scenario

0% discount rate

3% discount (base case)

5% discount rate

3% discount with CPE applied

with 120% pass on rate

with 80% pass on rate

3% discount rate

3% discount rate

Variable

Point estimates for both male and female combined

HALYs gained over the lifetime of the 2019 population

752,193

198,471

96,204

95,485

229,632

164,888

109,363

272,362

HALYs gained by the year 2044

64,025

38,905

28,580

18,320

45,013

32,324

21,446

53,380

Healthcare cost savings, productivity gains, intervention cost (in Million USD)

Healthcare cost savings over the lifetime

300

141

86

75

163

117

78

193

Healthcare cost savings by the year 2044

92

57

43

28

66

48

32

79

Productivity gains (morbidity) by year 2044

709

437

325

216

506

363

241

600

Productivity gains (mortality) by year 2044

260

155

112

64

179

129

85

212

Productivity gains (mortality & morbidity) by year 2044

861

528

390

253

611

439

291

724

Productivity gains (morbidity) over the lifetime

3,880

1,396

784

716

1,615

1,160

770

1,915

Productivity gains (mortality) over the lifetime

2,139

697

364

304

806

579

384

956

Productivity gains (mortality & morbidity) over the lifetime

5,129

1,803

996

894

2,086

1,498

994

2,473

Intervention cost (discounted)

28.9

9.9

6.6

9.9

9.9

9.9

9.9

9.9

ICER (USD per HALY)

ICER (without cost offsets)*

38

50

68

103

43

60

90

36

ICER (with cost offsets)*

‘dominant’

‘dominant’

‘dominant’

‘dominant’

‘dominant’

‘dominant’

‘dominant’

‘dominant’

Net monetary benefit and tax revenue in Billion USD

Net monetary benefit with productivity

5.40

1.93

1.08

0.96

2.24

1.61

1.06

2.66

Net monetary benefit without productivity

0.27

0.13

0.08

0.06

0.15

0.11

0.07

0.18

Tax revenue by the year 2044 (discounted)

98.02

71.13

59.10

71.13

68.39

74.08

39.47

96.94

Tax revenue by the year 2044 (undiscounted)

98.02

98.02

98.02

98.02

94.24

102.08

54.39

133.58

Intervention

Mandatory kJ menu labelling

Change in consumption levels related to supermarket food purchase

Change in national consumption levels back to the 1975 average levels of energy intake

Sensitivity scenarios with varied discount rates

0%

3%

5%

0%

3%

5%

0%

3%

5%

Variable

Point estimates for both male and female combined

HALYs gained over the lifetime of the 2019 population

579,204

149,672

72,157

14,968,297

3,568,793

1,590,360

55,075,938

12,829,960

5,644,586

HALYs gained by the year 2044

48,494

29,658

21,888

724,078

409,911

285,225

2,453,514

1,387,948

965,274

Healthcare cost savings, productivity gains, intervention cost (in Million USD)

Healthcare cost savings over the lifetime

145

85

55

3,601

1,945

1,166

10,579

6,308

3,830

Healthcare cost savings by the year 2044

62

39

30

1,126

652

461

3,694

2,137

1,509

Productivity gains (morbidity) by year 2044

467

291

217

7,684

4,394

3,079

25,214

14,417

10,101

Productivity gains (mortality) by year 2044

202

121

88

2,654

1,477

1,015

8,807

4,900

3,366

Productivity gains (mortality & morbidity) by year 2044

585

362

269

9,234

5,257

3,672

30,358

17,279

12,067

Productivity gains (morbidity) over the lifetime

2,474

895

506

61,790

20,561

10,757

206,625

68,447

35,712

Productivity gains (mortality) over the lifetime

1,553

510

269

38,478

11,626

5,679

129,953

39,130

19,072

Productivity gains (mortality & morbidity) over the lifetime

3,381

1,193

663

84,260

27,350

14,073

282,515

91,298

46,850

Intervention cost (discounted)

34.6

12.0

8.1

      

ICER (USD per HALY)

ICER (without cost offsets)*

60

80

112

      

ICER (with cost offsets)*

‘dominant’

‘dominant’

‘dominant’

      

Net monetary benefit in Billion USD

         

Net monetary benefit with productivity

3.49

1.27

0.71

      

Net monetary benefit without productivity

0.11

0.07

0.05

      
  1. HALYs: health adjusted life years, kJ: kilojoule, SSB: sugar sweetened beverages, USD: US dollars. ICER: incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, dominant (health promoting and cost-saving). The following modelled diseases were not costed: low back pain, osteoarthritis hip, osteoarthritis knee, gout, Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias, cataract, gallbladder and biliary diseases and atrial fibrillation and flutter (AFF). Productivity gains estimates: gains resulting from a reduction in obesity-related morbidity, mortality and obesity-related mortality and morbidity (combined). *cost offsets are healthcare cost savings. Net monetary benefit was calculated as the total healthcare cost savings and productivity gains realised less total intervention cost. Productivity gains included in the net monetary benefit calculation was the obesity-related mortality and morbidity (combined) outcome. We modelled the entire 2019 population in Kenya with risks rising only from age 20 and no burden among children. All sensitivity scenarios run with uncertainty off
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Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation

ISSN: 1478-7547

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