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Table 4 Effects of each intervention on HALYs, LYs and overall deaths

From: The health and economic impact and cost effectiveness of interventions for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in Kenya: a stakeholder engaged modelling study

Intervention

20% SSB tax

Mandatory kJ menu labelling

Change in consumption levels related to supermarket food purchase

Change in national consumption levels back to the 1975 average levels of energy intake

Variable

Total, mean

Total, mean

Total, mean

Total, mean

 

(95% UI)

(95% UI)

(95% UI)

(95% UI)

HALYs gained over the lifetime

203,266

151,718

3,677,675

13,108,472

 

(163,752–249,621)

(55,257–250,412)

(2,661,365–4,789,915)

(11,404,317–15,152,341)

LYs gained over the lifetime

124,970

104,945

2,569,421

9,356,747

 

(95,712–160,157)

(37,962–177,605)

(1,785,831–3,533,570)

(7,670,302–11,471,801)

HALYs gained by the year 2030

7,134

5,761

14,681

48,770

 

(5,810–8,628)

(2,071–9,441)

(10,854–18,507)

(44,646–53,186)

HALYs gained by the year 2044

39,424

29,756

417,782

1,403,031

 

(31,942–47,744)

(10,643–48,531)

(307,424–531,865)

(1,264,258–1,556,872)

Deaths* avoided by the year 2030

623

608

2,175

7,362

 

(484–782)

(217–1,009)

(1,509–2,937)

(6,129–8,817)

Deaths avoided by the year 2044

3,246

2,744

53,709

185,869

 

(2,506–4,118)

(981–4,594)

(37,558–72,694)

(155,703–222,881)

  1. Total refers to estimates for both male and female. HALYs: health adjusted life years, kJ: kilojoule, LYs: life years, UI: Uncertainty interval, SSB: sugar sweetened beverages
  2. We modelled the entire 2019 population in Kenya with risks rising only from age 20 and no burden among children
  3. *This is the overall mortality number from lifetable where we count both the reduction in mortality from BMI-related diseases and the increase in mortality due to other causes