Table 3 Projected number of incident cases, prevalent cases and avoided deaths by disease group
Variable | Cumulative incident cases averted (2019 to 2044) | Prevalent cases avoided (for the year 2044) | Avoided deaths by disease group# (2019 to 2044) |
|---|---|---|---|
Total, n (95% UI) | Total, n (95% UI) | Total, n (95% UI) | |
Intervention/ Disease group | Â | Â | Â |
20% SSB tax | |||
T2DM | 29,731 | 20,624 | 1,122 |
|  | (21,558 − 39,552) | (15,122 − 27,281) | (832–1,460) |
Cardiovascular diseases | 12,319 | 6,802 | 3,270 |
|  | (9,629 − 15,497) | (5,322–8,578) | (2,443–4,269) |
Musculoskeletal diseases | 22,239 | 6,589 | N/A |
|  | (17,483 − 27,793) | (4,759–8,862) | N/A |
CKD | 7,895 | 5,436 | 246 |
|  | (3,970 − 13,694) | (2,457–9,920) | (138–390) |
Cancers | 375 | 52 | 275 |
|  | (231–567) | (34–75) | (155–436) |
Other diseases | 7,500 | 3,008 | 169 |
|  | (5,482–9,792) | (2,108–4,055) | (121–224) |
Mandatory kj menu labelling | Â | Â | Â |
T2DM | 16,696 | 11,366 | 667 |
|  | (5,692–29,220) | (3,894–19,699) | (230–1,150) |
Cardiovascular diseases | 10,087 | 5,188 | 2,835 |
|  | (3,636–17,138) | (1,859–8,755) | (1,032–4,825) |
Musculoskeletal diseases | 17,305 | 5,038 | N/A |
|  | (6,121–29,131) | (1,706–8,967) | N/A |
CKD | 6,911 | 4,509 | 240 |
|  | (1,930–14,533) | (1,151–9,911) | (71–473) |
Cancers | 346 | 44 | 255 |
|  | (117–646) | ( 15–80) | (81–491) |
Other diseases | 5,974 | 2,243 | 160 |
|  | (2,145–10,271) | (769–3,962) | (58–279) |
Change in consumption levels related to supermarket food purchase* | |||
T2DM | 350,442 | 259,069 | 9,788 |
|  | (239,273–473,272) | (176,932–348,568) | (6,671–13,245) |
Cardiovascular diseases | 220,539 | 132,044 | 50,329 |
|  | (154,010–298,034) | (93,265–174,789) | (33,923–71,039) |
Musculoskeletal diseases | 388,189 | 139,926 | N/A |
|  | (275,259–508,823) | (93,844–192,909) | N/A |
CKD | 147,041 | 106,290 | 4,026 |
|  | (71,384–264,816) | (48,098–199,049) | (2,094–6,397) |
Cancers | 7,865 | 1,353 | 5,590 |
|  | (4,545–12,278) | (850–1,998) | (2,966–9,112) |
Other diseases | 128,707 | 61,082 | 2,847 |
|  | (89,927–172,749) | (41,660–83,966) | (1,956–3,875) |
Change in national consumption levels back to the 1975 average levels of energy intake * | |||
T2DM | 1,042,887 | 773,500 | 29,798 |
|  | (827,863–1,264,903) | (620,520–931,184) | (23,738–36,059) |
Cardiovascular diseases | 757,453 | 454,457 | 172,514 |
|  | (636,593–886,850) | (389,766–523,037) | (136,188–216,066) |
Musculoskeletal diseases | 1,494,251 | 544,707 | N/A |
|  | (1,248,593–1,762,481) | (419,577–682,021) | N/A |
CKD | 519,329 | 379,280 | 13,375 |
|  | (264,520–845,809) | (179,833–641,140) | (7,748–19,961) |
Cancers | 30,191 | 5,330 | 21,326 |
|  | (19,099–44,144) | (3,608–7,337) | (12,071–32,777) |
Other diseases | 486,004 | 236,005 | 10,580 |
|  | (394,749–590,463) | (185,476–293,871) | (8,423–12,986) |