Table 8 Results of scenario analyses
|  | Total incremental cost (EUR) | Total incremental QALYs gained | ICER (cost per QALY gained) | ∆ICER (%) compared to base case |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Base case analysis | -73,607,345 | 7,966 | -9,240 | - |
Efficacy and waning of PPV23 vaccine using estimates by Lawrence et al. | -59,801,031 | 7,341 | -8,146 | + 12% |
Vaccine coverage 25% | -24,535,782 | 2,655 | -9,240 | - |
Vaccine coverage 50% | -49,071,563 | 5,311 | -9,240 | - |
Vaccine coverage 100% | -98,143,127 | 10,622 | -9,240 | - |
PCV20 serotype coverage against pneumonia: Benfield et al. (16.9% for all age groups) | -69,346,273 | 7,881 | -8,799 | + 5% |
PCV20 serotype coverage against pneumonia: Theilacker et al. (20.7% 18–64 years and 15.2% +65 years) | -66,352,656 | 7,615 | -8,713 | + 6% |
Time horizon 5 years | 3,027,134 | 2,107 | 1,437 | + 116% |
Time horizon 10 years | -45,175,157 | 4,474 | -10,098 | -9% |
Discount rate 0% | -109,818,187 | 12,119 | -9,062 | + 2% |
Discount rate 7% | -53,778,375 | 6,185 | -8,695 | + 6% |
Disutility of IPD increased by 100% | -73,607,345 | 8,097 | -9,091 | + 2% |
PCV20 compared with no vaccination | 19,529,114 | 8,519 | 2,292 | + 125% |
PCV 20 linear waning to 0%, year 5–15 | -48.964.932 | 6.468 | -7,570 | + 18% |
Herd immunity effect set to 0% | -75,156,959 | 8,017 | -9,313 | -1% |