Table 2 Efficacy and costs of vaccination programs (weighted average)
Base case (realistic vaccination campaign) | Standard vaccination scenario (LAC) | Optimized vaccination scenario (LAC) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Argentina | Brazil | Chile | Colombia | Mexico | Peru | Costa Rica | |||
Vaccine coverage % (range for DSA) | |||||||||
1 dose | 80.8 (60.6–100) | 76.8 (57.6–96) | 87.85 (65.89–100) | 73.43 (55.07–91.79) | 59.4 (44.55–74.25) | 67.58 (50.69–84.48) | 75.64 (56.73–94.55) | 74.5 (55.88–93.13) | 100 (75–100) |
2 doses | 65.79 (49.34–82.24) | 63.24 (47.43–79.05) | 84.14 (63.11–100) | 50.03 (37.52–62.54) | 48.27 (36.2–60.34) | 55.69 (41.77–69.61) | 62.56 (46.92–78.2) | 61.4 (46.05–76.75) | 87.85 (65.89–100) |
Vaccine effectiveness % (95% CI) 1 dose (range for DSA) | |||||||||
Symptomatic cases w/o hospitalization | 74.46 (65.52–83.39) | 73.48 (64.66–82.30) | 64.48 (64.05–82.30) | 73.15 (64.37–81.93) | 75.91 (66.80–85.02) | 81.05 (71.33–90.78) | 75.74 (66.65–84.83) | 71.14 (63–80) | 93.00 (81.84–100) |
Hospitalizations | 87.01 (76.57–97.45) | 72.78 (64.05–81.52) | 47.42 (42.00–53.00) | 64.54 (56.79–72.28) | 76.19 (67.04–85.33) | 76.63 (67.44–85.83) | 77.87 (68.53–87.22) | 65.92 (58–74) | 100 (88–100) |
UCI | 97.30 (85.63–100) | 66.43 (58.46–74.40) | 51.51 (45.00–58.00) | 62.82 (55.28–70.36) | 77.30 (68.02–86.58) | 77.30 (68.02–86.58) | 74.56 (65.61–83.51) | 62.05 (55–70) | 100 (88–100) |
Death | 83.24 (73.26–93.23) | 65.76 (57.86–73.65) | 51.14 (45.00–57.00) | 63.26 (55.67–70.85) | 71.70 (63.10–80.30) | 71.70 (63.10–80.30) | 68.81 (60.55–77.06) | 60.65 (53–68) | 100 (88–100) |
Vaccine effectiveness % (95% CI) 2 doses (range for DSA) | |||||||||
Symptomatic cases w/o hospitalization | 79.94 (70.34–89.53) | 77.57 (68.26–100) | 72.1 (63.45–80.75) | 80.78 (71.09–90.48) | 88.09 (77.52–98.66) | 92.21 (81.15–100) | 78.02 (68.66–87.39) | 76.54 (67–86) | 98.50 (86.68–100) |
Hospitalizations | 96.45 (84.88–100) | 95.45 (84.00–100) | 90.00 (79.20–100) | 93.64 (82.40–100) | 96.09 (84.56–100) | 97.40 (85.71–100) | 96.57 (84.98–100) | 93.96 (83–100) | 100 (88–100) |
UCI | 99.31 (87.40–100) | 96.82 (85.20–100) | 92.23 (81.17–100) | 94.78 (83.40–100) | 98.34 (86.54–100) | 97.88 (86.13–100) | 97.91 (86.16–100) | 95.68 (84–100) | 100 (88–100) |
Death | 99.35 (87.43–100) | 95.63 (84.15–80.75) | 89.08 (78.39–99.77) | 93.10 (81.93–100) | 97.93 (86.18–100) | 97.22 (85.55–100) | 97.22 (85.55–100) | 91.70 (81–100) | 100 (88–100) |
Vaccine cost per dose—USD$ (range for DSA) | 8.62 (6.47–10.78) | 8.28 (6.21–10.35) | 11.13 (8.35–13.91) | 13.81 (10.36–17.26) | 6.09 (4.57–7.61) | 16.28 (12.21–20.35) | 10.74 (8.06–13.43) | 8.58 (6.44–10.73) | 8.58 (6.44–10.73) |
Total costs per each vaccine dose applied (*)—USD$ (range for DSA) | 8.98 (6.74–11.23) | 8.54 (6.41–10.68) | 11.46 (8.6–14.33) | 14.07 (10.55–17.59) | 6.36 (4.77–7.95) | 16.61 (12.46–20.76) | 10.95 (8.21–13.69) | 8.86 (6.65–11.08) | 8.86 (6.65–11.08) |