Table 1 Study assumptions and design, epidemiological, utility and cost parameters
General Inputs and study-model attributes and assumptions | Base case value (range if it was incorporated in the sensitivity analysis) | Source |
|---|---|---|
Time horizon | 1 year: January to December 31 2021 | Time horizon: assumption based on previous economic evaluations [5, 6, 8, 10] |
Cycle length | 1 day | N/A |
Perspective | National Healthcare System | N/A |
Annual discount rate (only for life expectancy and QALYs) | 3% | Bill & Melinda Gates Reference Case [23] |
Primary health benefit outcome | QALY loss | N/A |
Secondary health benefit outcomes | Deaths, Years of life lost, COVID-19 cases, COVID-19 Hospitalizations (general ward and ICU) | N/A |
Average population distribution at baseline | ||
Susceptible (%) | 94.20% | SVEIR model data on January first, 2021 |
Exposure (%) | 0.10% | SVEIR model data on January first, 2021 |
Infected (%) | 0.10% | SVEIR model data on January first, 2021 |
Recovered (%) | 5.60% | SVEIR model data on January first, 2021 |
Average proportion of asymptomatic subjects among not hospitalized infected | 0.45 | Oran et al. [1] |
Average COVID-19 Hospitalization rate on general ward per 10,000 infected subjects | 3.5* | Lapidus et al. [2] |
Average COVID-19 Hospitalization rate on ICU per 10,000 infected subjects | 1.8* | Lapidus et al. [2] |
Average proportion of ICU patients with invasive mechanical ventilation | 0.71 | Almeshari et al. [3] |
Infectious fatality rate-IFR—% by age group | 18–29: 0.03%; 30–39: 0.07%; 40–49: 0.19%; 50–59: 0.46%; 60–69: 1.12%; 70–79: 2.68%; > 80: 7.97% | Brazeau et al. [4] |
Immunity protection length | ||
Natural immunity protection—time in days | 180 | Assumption |
Two doses vaccine immunity protection—time in days | 360 (270–360) | Assumption (**) |
Length of symptoms duration or hospitalization (in days) | ||
Symptomatic case w/o hospitalization | 4.8 | Peak et al. [5] |
Hospitalization in general Ward | 5 | CDC report [6] |
Hospitalization in ICU | 17 | Estenssoro et al. [7] |
Population Health Utility (by country and age) | See Additional file 1 | See Additional file 1 |
Proportional utility decrements from age adjusted population values | ||
Symptomatic case w/o hospitalization | 0.19 loss | |
Hospitalization | 0.30 loss | |
UCI w/o mechanical ventilation | 0.50 loss | |
UCI with mechanical ventilation | 0.60 loss | |
Average resource cost per event/per day—USD | ||
Cost per each COVID-19 case diagnosed (***) | ARG: $100.20; BR: $95.29; CL: $127.87; COL: $156.99; CRI: $122.18; MEX: $70.97; PE: $185.34 | Own estimation (see “Methods” section) |
Symptomatic case w/o hospitalization event cost (USD) | ARG: $116.5; BR: $105.2; CL: $166.8; COL: $179.6; CRI: $147.1; MEX: $150.7; PE: $195.6 | Own estimation (see “Methods” section) |
Hospitalization on general ward cost per day (USD) | ARG: $130.1; BR: $26.0; CL: $159.1; COL: $213.2; CRI: $127.0; MEX: $444.5; PE: $224.6 | Own estimation (see “Methods” section) |
Hospitalization on ICU w/o invasive mechanical ventilation cost per day (USD) | ARG: $239.2; BR: $236.4; CL: $191.3; COL: $397.8; CRI: $356.1; MEX: $2116.6; PE: $366.7 | Own estimation (see “Methods” section) |
Hospitalization on ICU with invasive mechanical ventilation cost per day (USD) | ARG: $263.0; BR: $251.2; CL: $200.0; COL: $408.9; CRI: $377.1; MEX: $2368.2; PE: $384.2 | Own estimation (see “Methods” section) |