Table 1 Model variables with base case values and ranges used in one-way sensitivity analysis

Population demographics

 Proportion of population under 5 years

20.4%

15.3–25.5%

Beta

11

 Prevalence of severe wasting in children under 5

5.3%

4.0–6.6%

Beta

¹²

 Severe wasting incidence correction factor

7.2

5.4–9.0

Normal

³⁴

 Severe wasting treatment point coverage

19.6%

14.8–24.5%

Beta

¹⁶

Natural history

 Annual background mortality rate for non-wasted children 1–5 year in Niger

2.2%

1.7–2.8%

n/a

^{11, 17}

 Hazard ratio of mortality among children with untreated moderate wasting

3.4

2.6–4.3

Lognormal

²

 Hazard ratio of mortality among children with untreated severe wasting

11.6

8.7–14.5

Lognormal

²

 Duration of untreated severe wasting episode (weeks)

20.2

15.2–25.3

Gamma

³⁵

Routine treatment outcomes at 12 weeks

 Number recovered after severe wasting treatment

733

550–920

Dirichlet

^{9, 10, 36, 37}

 Number of non-responders to severe wasting treatment

63

47–79

Dirichlet

³⁶

 Number defaulting from severe wasting treatment

12

9–15

Dirichlet

³⁶

 Number transferring to inpatient care

370

278–463

Dirichlet

^{9, 36}

 Number of deaths after transfer to inpatient care during treatment

5

4–6

Dirichlet

³⁴

 Number of deaths during severe wasting treatment

21

16–58

Dirichlet

^{9, 10, 36}

 Average days to recovery

28.3

21.2–35.4

Gamma

^{9, 36}

 Average days to default

24.3

18.2–30.4

Gamma

³⁶

 Average days to death

28.9

21.7–36.1

Gamma

^{9, 36}

 Average days to transfer

24.8

18.6–31.0

Gamma

^{9, 36}

Indicated treatment outcomes at 12 weeks

 Number recovered after severe wasting treatment

700

525–875

Dirichlet

^{9, 36}

 Number of non-responders to severe wasting treatment

47

35–59

Dirichlet

³⁶

 Number defaulting from severe wasting treatment

9

7–11

Dirichlet

³⁶

 Number transferring to inpatient care

427

320–534

Dirichlet

^{9, 36}

 Number of deaths after transfer to inpatient care during treatment

5

4–6

Dirichlet

³⁴

 Number of deaths during severe wasting treatment

17

13–21

Dirichlet

^{9, 36}

 Average days to recovery

30.2

22.7–37.8

Gamma

^{9, 36}

 Average days to default

24.9

18.7–31.1

Gamma

³⁶

 Average days to death

17.5

13.1–21.9

Gamma

^{9, 36}

 Average days to transfer

24.1

18.1–30.1

Gamma

^{9, 36}