Table 1 The model inputs parameters

Population data

 Total adult population

50,364,992

40,291,994

60,437,990

[5]

 T2DM prevalence

13.7%

10.9%

16.4%

[2]

 Proportion of patients with Type 2 Diabetes diagnosed and treated (with CV morbidity)

35%

28%

42%

[6]

 Proportion of patients covered by private insurance companies in Egypt

5%

4%

6%

[7]

 GLP-1RA adoption year 1

3%

2.4%

3.6%

IMS data

 GLP-1RA adoption year 2

4%

3.2%

4.8%

IMS data

 GLP-1RA adoption year 3

5%

4%

6%

IMS data

Clinical parameters from the LEADER trial

 MI^a

− 0.80%

− 0.00640

− 0.00960

[3]

 Ischemic stroke^a

− 0.40%

− 0.00320

− 0.00480

[3]

 HF (hospitalization)^a

− 0.60%

− 0.00480

− 0.00720

[3]

 Coronary revascularization^a

− 0.70%

− 0.00560

− 0.00840

[3]

 Retinopathy^a

0.30%

0.00240

0.00360

[3]

 Nephropathy^a

− 1.50%

− 0.01200

− 0.01800

[3]

 Unstable angina pectoris (hospitalization)^a

− 0.10%

− 0.00080

− 0.00120

[3]

 All-cause mortality^a

− 1.40%

− 0.01120

− 0.01680

[3]

Clinical parameters from the TECOS trial

MI^b

− 0.10%

− 0.00080

− 0.00120

[4]

 Ischemic stroke^b

− 0.20%

− 0.00160

− 0.00240

[4]

 Unstable angina pectoris (hospitalization)^b

− 0.20%

− 0.00160

− 0.00240

[4]

 Severe hypoglycemia^b

0.30%

0.00240

0.00360

[4]

 CV death^b

0.30%

0.00240

0.00360

[4]

 Acute pancreatitis^b

0.10%

0.00080

0.00120

[4]

 HF (hospitalization)^b

0.10%

0.00080

0.00120

[4]

 Pancreatic cancer^b

− 0.10%

− 0.00080

− 0.00120

[4]

Treatment costs per unit (Egyptian Pounds)

 Liraglutide

87.60

20.37 USD

70.08

16.29 USD

105.12

24.44 USD

[8]

 Sitagliptin 100

11.00

2.55 USD

8.80

2.04 USD

13.20

3.06 USD

[8]

 Metformin 1000

0.90

0.209 USD

0.72

0.16 USD

1.08

0.25 USD

[8]

 Insulin (glargine) 100 IU

126.00

29.30 USD

100.80

23.44 USD

151.20

35.16 USD

[8]

 SU (gliclazide 60 mg)

1.58

0.36 USD

1.26

0.29 USD

1.89

0.43 USD

[8]

 TZD (pioglitazone 15 mg)

5.13

1.19 USD

4.11

0.95 USD

6.16

1.43 USD

[8]

 Novonorm 2 mg (repaglinide)

1.47

0.34 USD

1.17

0.27 USD

1.76

0.40 USD

[8]

 SGLT2i (empagliflozin)

16.53

3.84 USD

13.23

3.07 USD

19.84

4.61 USD

[8]

Event costs excluding medicines (in Egyptian Pounds)

 Non-fatal MI

76,719

17,841 USD

61,375

14,273 USD

92,062

21,409 USD

[8]

 Non-fatal stroke

65,928

15,332 USD

52,742

12,265 USD

79,113

18,398 USD

[8]

 HF (hospitalization)

161,249

37,499 USD

128,999

29,999 USD

193,498

44,999 USD

[8]

 Coronary revascularization

67,919

15,795 USD

54,335

12,636 USD

81,502

18,953 USD

[8]

 Retinopathy

20,000

4651 USD

16,000

3720 USD

24,000

5581 USD

[8]

 Nephropathy

215,695

50,161 USD

172,556

40,129 USD

258,834

60,193 USD

[8]

 Unstable angina pectoris (hospitalization)

76,719

17,841 USD

61,375

14,273 USD

92,062

21,409 USD

[8]

 Acute pancreatitis

55,883

12,996 USD

44,706

10,396 USD

67,059

15,595 USD

[8]

 Severe hypoglycemia

8059

1874 USD

6447

1499 USD

9670

2248 USD

[8]

 Pancreatic cancer

92,136

21,426 USD

73,708

17,141 USD

110,563

25,712 USD

[8]

 Mortality

750,000

174,418 USD

600,000

139,534 USD

900,000

209,302 USD

[8]