Table 1 Key parameters for the model of adjuvant treatment of regional breast cancer with ACTH and TCH

Probability

–ACTH

RR

0.837

[14,15,16,17,18]

OS

TTP

44.3

7.2

DOR

5.6

Stable → Stable (ACss)

1-ACsp-ACsr

0.401

0.3208–0.4812

Beta

Stable → Remission (ACsr)

1-exp(−RR/3)

0.243

0.1944–0.2916

Beta

Stable → Relapse(ACsp)

ACrp*4

0.356

0.2848–0.4272

Beta

Remission → Remission (ACrr)

1-ACrp

0.911

0.7288–1.0000

Beta

Remission → Relapse (ACrp)

exp(− 0.75*In (2)/(5.6))

0.089

0.0712–0.1068

Beta

Relapse → Relapse (ACpp)

1-ACpd

0.986

0..7888–1.0000

Beta

Relapse → Death (ACpd)

exp(− 0.75*In (2)/(44.3–7.2))

0.014

0.0112–0.0168

Beta

−TCH

RR

0.704

[19,20,21,22,23]

OS

TTP

35

10.35

DOR

4

Stable → Stable (TCss)

1-TCsp-TCsr

0.311

0.2488–0.3732

Beta

Stable → Remission(TCsr)

1-exp(− RR/3)

0.209

0.1672–0.2508

Beta

Stable → Relapse(TCsp)

TCrp*4

0.48

0.384–0.576

Beta

Remission → Remission (TCrr)

1-TCrp

0.88

0.704–1.0000

Beta

Remission → Relapse (TCrp)

exp(− 0.75*In (2)/4.2))

0.12

0.096–0.144

Beta

Relapse → Relapse(TCpp)

1-TCpd

0.979

0.7832–1.0000

Beta

Relapse → Death(TCpd)

exp(− 0.75*In (2)/(35–10.35))

0.021

0.0168–0.0252

Beta

Discount rate for costs and QALYs

5% per year

[24]

Health state utilities

[13]

No recurrence (chemotherapeutic period)

0.74

0.592–0.888

Beta

No recurrence (after chemotherapy)

0.94

0.752–1.000

Beta

local recurrence (in the first year)

0.74

0.592–0.888

Beta

remission

0.85

0.68–1.000

Beta

Relapse

0.5

0.4–0.6

Beta