Table 5 Univariate sensitivity analysis: when the screening risk cut-off is set to 1:500 or 1:1000
Testing strategy | 1st and 2nd trimester screening (current screening) | NIPT as contingent testing | |
|---|---|---|---|
Risk 1:500 | Risk 1:1000 | ||
Effectiveness | |||
No of women undergoing 1st and 2nd trimester screening tests | 66,799 | 66,799 | 66,799 |
No of women undergoing NIPT | 0 | 4979 | 8763 |
No of NIPT with a positive result | 0 | 259 | 264 |
No of ITa | 3275 | 623 | 705 |
No of procedure-related miscarriages | 23 | 4 | 5 |
No of T21 cases detected | 271 | 276 | 281 |
Costs | |||
1st and 2nd trimester screening tests | €5,292,716 | €5,292,716 | €5,292,716 |
NIPT | €0 | €2,847,350 | €5,011,600 |
IT | €3,093,565 | €588,486 | €665,943 |
Hospitalisation due to amniotic fluid leakage and pregnancy termination owing to T21 | €515,591 | €482,137 | €492,839 |
Total costs | €8,901,872 | €9,210,689 | €11,463,098 |
Economic analysis | NIPT as first-line testing vs 1st and 2nd trimester screening | NIPT as contingent testing vs 1st and 2nd trimester screening | |
|---|---|---|---|
Risk 1:500 | Risk 1:1000 | ||
Incremental cost | €32,494,073 | €308,817 | €2,561,226 |
Incremental effectiveness (T21 extra cases detected) | 25 | 5 | 10 |
ICER (€/T21 extra case detected) | 1,299,763 | 61,763 | 256,123 |