From: Budget impact analysis of the adoption of new hypertension guidelines in Colombia

Parameter | Estimation | Probabilistic sensitivity analysis | References | |
---|---|---|---|---|

Probability distribution | Distribution parameters | |||

Physician’s prescription probability | 0.52 | β | α: 29 β: 31 | [18] |

Patient’s probability of adherence to the medical recommendation (with BP > 140/90) | 0.45 | β | α: 45 β: 55 | [19] |

Patient’s probability of adherence (with SBP: 130–139 or DBP: 80–89 mmHg) | 0.2 | β | α: 20 β: 80 | [35] |

Annual probability of AMI in standard control (BP < 140/90 mmHg) | 0.0078 | β | α: 116 β: 4562 | [11] |

Annual probability of stroke in standard control (BP < 140/90 mmHg) | 0.0047 | β | α: 140 β: 4543 | [11] |

Annual probability of HF in standard control (BP < 140/90 mmHg) | 0.0067 | β | α: 100 β: 4583 | [11] |

Annual probability of death due to cardiovascular disease in standard control (BP < 140/90 mmHg) | 0.0043 | β | α: 65 β: 4618 | [11] |

Annual probability of AMI in intensive control (BP < 120/80 mmHg) | 0.0065 | β | α: 97 β: 4586 | [11] |

Annual probability of stroke in intensive control (BP < 120/80 mmHg) | 0.0041 | β | α: 62 β: 4616 | [11] |

Annual probability of HF in intensive control (BP < 120/80 mmHg) | 0.0041 | β | α: 62 β: 4616 | [11] |

Annual probability of death due to cardiovascular disease in intensive control (BP < 120/80 mmHg) | 0.0025 | β | α: 37 β: 4641 | [11] |

Annual probability of AMI in untreated patients^{a}
| 0.047 | β | α: 47 β: 953 | [36] |

Annual probability of stroke in untreated patients^{a}
| 0.1040 | β | α: 104 β: 896 | [36] |

Annual probability of HF in untreated patients^{a}
| 0.0396 | β | α: 39 β: 961 | [36] |

Mean of daily tablets in patients with intensive control (BP < 120/80 mmHg) | 2.8 | Poisson | λ: 2.8 | [11] |

Mean of daily tablets in patients with standard control (BP < 140/90 mmHg) | 1.8 | Poisson | λ: 1.8 | [11] |

Mean of annual prescription of diagnostic aids | 0.61 | Poisson | λ: 1.5 | [37] |

Mean of annual episodes decompensation of HF | 2.2 | Poisson | λ: 2 | [38] |

Weighted average daily cost of antihypertensive medication | 0.00556 | – | – | [39] |

Average total cost of diagnostic aids | 57.91 | – | – | [40] |

Average total cost per AMI per episode in 2018^{b,c}
| USD 2938 | – | – | [21] |

Average total cost per AMI per episode in 2019 | USD 3235 | – | – | [21] |

Average total cost per AMI per episode in 2020 | USD 2934 | – | – | [21] |

Average total cost of stroke^{c}
| USD 3430 | γ | Alfa: 0,44604 β: 19360084 | [22] |

Average total cost per episode of decompensated HF^{d}
| USD 1990 | γ | Alfa: 0,44248 β: 14526853 | [23] |

Average total cost of HF chronic management^{e}
| USD 1131 | γ | Alfa: 0,1599 β: 1902392 | [23] |