Budget impact analysis of the adoption of new hypertension guidelines in Colombia

Guevara-Cuellar, Cesar Augusto; Soto, Victoria Eugenia; Molina-Echeverry, María Isabel

doi:10.1186/s12962-018-0152-5

Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation

Table 1 Model parameters

From: Budget impact analysis of the adoption of new hypertension guidelines in Colombia

Parameter	Estimation	Probabilistic sensitivity analysis		References
Parameter	Estimation	Probability distribution	Distribution parameters	References
Physician’s prescription probability	0.52	β	α: 29 β: 31	[18]
Patient’s probability of adherence to the medical recommendation (with BP > 140/90)	0.45	β	α: 45 β: 55	[19]
Patient’s probability of adherence (with SBP: 130–139 or DBP: 80–89 mmHg)	0.2	β	α: 20 β: 80	[35]
Annual probability of AMI in standard control (BP < 140/90 mmHg)	0.0078	β	α: 116 β: 4562	[11]
Annual probability of stroke in standard control (BP < 140/90 mmHg)	0.0047	β	α: 140 β: 4543	[11]
Annual probability of HF in standard control (BP < 140/90 mmHg)	0.0067	β	α: 100 β: 4583	[11]
Annual probability of death due to cardiovascular disease in standard control (BP < 140/90 mmHg)	0.0043	β	α: 65 β: 4618	[11]
Annual probability of AMI in intensive control (BP < 120/80 mmHg)	0.0065	β	α: 97 β: 4586	[11]
Annual probability of stroke in intensive control (BP < 120/80 mmHg)	0.0041	β	α: 62 β: 4616	[11]
Annual probability of HF in intensive control (BP < 120/80 mmHg)	0.0041	β	α: 62 β: 4616	[11]
Annual probability of death due to cardiovascular disease in intensive control (BP < 120/80 mmHg)	0.0025	β	α: 37 β: 4641	[11]
Annual probability of AMI in untreated patients^a	0.047	β	α: 47 β: 953	[36]
Annual probability of stroke in untreated patients^a	0.1040	β	α: 104 β: 896	[36]
Annual probability of HF in untreated patients^a	0.0396	β	α: 39 β: 961	[36]
Mean of daily tablets in patients with intensive control (BP < 120/80 mmHg)	2.8	Poisson	λ: 2.8	[11]
Mean of daily tablets in patients with standard control (BP < 140/90 mmHg)	1.8	Poisson	λ: 1.8	[11]
Mean of annual prescription of diagnostic aids	0.61	Poisson	λ: 1.5	[37]
Mean of annual episodes decompensation of HF	2.2	Poisson	λ: 2	[38]
Weighted average daily cost of antihypertensive medication	0.00556	–	–	[39]
Average total cost of diagnostic aids	57.91	–	–	[40]
Average total cost per AMI per episode in 2018^b,c	USD 2938	–	–	[21]
Average total cost per AMI per episode in 2019	USD 3235	–	–	[21]
Average total cost per AMI per episode in 2020	USD 2934	–	–	[21]
Average total cost of stroke^c	USD 3430	γ	Alfa: 0,44604 β: 19360084	[22]
Average total cost per episode of decompensated HF^d	USD 1990	γ	Alfa: 0,44248 β: 14526853	[23]
Average total cost of HF chronic management^e	USD 1131	γ	Alfa: 0,1599 β: 1902392	[23]

^aData calibrated from the source
^bNot modeled as a probability distribution due to absence of variance data
^cCosts derived from acute episode care
^dCosts derived from hospital care for an episode of decompensated HF
^eCosts derived from outpatient care of patients with chronic HF

Back to article page

ISSN: 1478-7547

Contact us

General enquiries: journalsubmissions@springernature.com