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Table 1 Model parameters

From: Budget impact analysis of the adoption of new hypertension guidelines in Colombia

Parameter Estimation Probabilistic sensitivity analysis References
Probability distribution Distribution parameters
Physician’s prescription probability 0.52 β α: 29 β: 31 [18]
Patient’s probability of adherence to the medical recommendation (with BP > 140/90) 0.45 β α: 45 β: 55 [19]
Patient’s probability of adherence (with SBP: 130–139 or DBP: 80–89 mmHg) 0.2 β α: 20 β: 80 [35]
Annual probability of AMI in standard control (BP < 140/90 mmHg) 0.0078 β α: 116 β: 4562 [11]
Annual probability of stroke in standard control (BP < 140/90 mmHg) 0.0047 β α: 140 β: 4543 [11]
Annual probability of HF in standard control (BP < 140/90 mmHg) 0.0067 β α: 100 β: 4583 [11]
Annual probability of death due to cardiovascular disease in standard control (BP < 140/90 mmHg) 0.0043 β α: 65 β: 4618 [11]
Annual probability of AMI in intensive control (BP < 120/80 mmHg) 0.0065 β α: 97 β: 4586 [11]
Annual probability of stroke in intensive control (BP < 120/80 mmHg) 0.0041 β α: 62 β: 4616 [11]
Annual probability of HF in intensive control (BP < 120/80 mmHg) 0.0041 β α: 62 β: 4616 [11]
Annual probability of death due to cardiovascular disease in intensive control (BP < 120/80 mmHg) 0.0025 β α: 37 β: 4641 [11]
Annual probability of AMI in untreated patientsa 0.047 β α: 47 β: 953 [36]
Annual probability of stroke in untreated patientsa 0.1040 β α: 104 β: 896 [36]
Annual probability of HF in untreated patientsa 0.0396 β α: 39 β: 961 [36]
Mean of daily tablets in patients with intensive control (BP < 120/80 mmHg) 2.8 Poisson λ: 2.8 [11]
Mean of daily tablets in patients with standard control (BP < 140/90 mmHg) 1.8 Poisson λ: 1.8 [11]
Mean of annual prescription of diagnostic aids 0.61 Poisson λ: 1.5 [37]
Mean of annual episodes decompensation of HF 2.2 Poisson λ: 2 [38]
Weighted average daily cost of antihypertensive medication 0.00556 [39]
Average total cost of diagnostic aids 57.91 [40]
Average total cost per AMI per episode in 2018b,c USD 2938 [21]
Average total cost per AMI per episode in 2019 USD 3235 [21]
Average total cost per AMI per episode in 2020 USD 2934 [21]
Average total cost of strokec USD 3430 γ Alfa: 0,44604 β: 19360084 [22]
Average total cost per episode of decompensated HFd USD 1990 γ Alfa: 0,44248 β: 14526853 [23]
Average total cost of HF chronic managemente USD 1131 γ Alfa: 0,1599 β: 1902392 [23]
  1. aData calibrated from the source
  2. bNot modeled as a probability distribution due to absence of variance data
  3. cCosts derived from acute episode care
  4. dCosts derived from hospital care for an episode of decompensated HF
  5. eCosts derived from outpatient care of patients with chronic HF