Table 1 Estimates of prevalence, effectiveness of vaccine & antiviral prophylaxis, and coverage
| Â | Base-case value | Range | PSA distribution | PSA parameters | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population and risk of perinatal infection (%) | |||||
 Total birth of 2014 | 435,435 | – | – | – | [16] |
 Prevalence of HBsAg among pregnant women | 2.45 | 1.7–3.2 | Beta | α = 41.61; β = 1656.92 | [7] |
 Prevalence of HBeAg among HBsAg(+) pregnant women | 38.5 | 29.7–44.3 | Beta | α = 64.37; β = 109.6 | [10] |
 Prevalence of high viral load among HBeAg(+) pregnant women | 80 | 60–100 | Uniform | low = 0.6; high = 1 | [23] |
HBeAg(+) pregnant women | |||||
 HepB1 + HBIG within 24 h of birth | 6.4 | 5.5–29 | Beta | α = 6.96; β = 33.39 | |
 HepB1 within 24 h of birth | 33.8 | 21–43 | Beta | α = 22.7; β = 48.24 | |
 No HepB1 within 24 h of birth | 87.5 | 62.6–96.7 | Beta | α = 16.97; β = 4.34 | [29] |
HBeAg(−) pregnant women | |||||
 HepB1 + HBIG within 24 h of birth | 1.4 | 0–3 | Beta | α = 3.93; β = 257.74 | |
 HepB1 within 24 h of birth | 6.6 | 0–13.2 | Beta | α = 3.67; β = 51.94 | |
 No HepB1 within 24 h of birth | 13.2 | 2.6–46.2 | Beta | α = 3.54; β = 10.98 | [29] |
 Reduction in perinatal infection with antiviral prophylaxis | 50 | 37–85 | Beta | α = 9.47; β = 6.05 | [32] |
Coverage of interventions (%) | |||||
 Antiviral prophylaxis | 100 | 50–100 | Beta | α = 8.25; β = 2.75 | Assumed |
 HepB1 + HBIG within 24 h of birth | 99 | 85–100 | Beta | α = 44.71; β = 3.625 | [10] |
 HepB1 within 24 h of birth | 90.7 | 46.4–92.3 | Beta | α = 10.5; β = 4.64 | [33] |