Table 1 Parameters of the decision and Markov model
Parameters | Base case in the model | Reference |
|---|---|---|
Basic information | ||
 Start age (years; age of the reference case) | 30 | Cohort data (unpublished) |
 Time-horizon (years; cycle of the Markov model) | 40 | Sonnenberg [42] |
Transition probabilities | ||
 Mortality rate (retained in ART → Dead) (%) | 9.4 | Badri [46] |
 Mortality rate (not retained in ART → Dead) (%) | 37.5 | Morgan [45] |
Retention rates in the original programme (%) | ||
 12 months after initiating ART | 88.6 | Cohort data (unpublished) |
 24 months | 81.0 | Cohort data (unpublished) |
 36 months | 72.0 | Cohort data (unpublished) |
 10 years | 65.0 | Assumption |
 20 years | 60.0 | Assumption |
 30 years | 55.0 | Assumption |
 40 years | 50.0 | Assumption |
Retention rates in the intervention programme (%) | ||
 12 months after initiating ART | 92.6 | Cohort data (unpublished) |
 24 months | 84.1 | Cohort data (unpublished) |
 36 months | 79.0 | Cohort data (unpublished) |
 10 years | 70.0 | Assumption |
 20 years | 65.0 | Assumption |
 30 years | 60.0 | Assumption |
 40 years | 55.0 | Assumption |
Annual costs per person (USD) | ||
 Original programme (hospital only) | 246.45 | Costing study in 2011 |
 Intervention programme (hospital + mobile) | 250.13 | Costing study in 2011 (under assumption of 25% increase patients by mobile) |
Utilities | ||
 Retained in ART | 0.82 | |
 Non-retained in ART | 0.53 | |