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Table 1 Parameters for Type 1 Diabetes Markov Model

From: Cost-effectiveness of continuous glucose monitoring and intensive insulin therapy for type 1 diabetes

Transition Probabilities [Annual cycle length]a Mean 2.5%b 97.50% Reference
Retinopathy to blindness 0.101 0.057 0.156 Hoerger et al. [16, 17]
Diabetes with no complications to CHD 0.031 0.018 0.048 Hoerger et al. [16, 17]
Subsequent LEA 0.110 0.062 0.169 Hoerger et al. [16, 17]
Diabetes with no complications to nephropathy 0.072 0.041 0.112 Klein et al. [18]
Nephropathy to CHD 0.022 0.013 0.034 Klein et al. [18]
Nephropathy to ESRD 0.072 0.041 0.109 Hoerger et al. [16, 17]
Diabetes with no complications to neuropathy 0.035 0.020 0.055 Klein et al. [18]
Neuropathy to CHD 0.029 0.016 0.044 Hoerger et al. [16, 17]
Neuropathy to LEA 0.131 0.074 0.200 Hoerger et al. [16, 17]
Neuropathy to nephropathy 0.097 0.055 0.149 Wu et al. [19]
Diabetes with no complications to retinopathy 0.011 0.006 0.017 Hoerger et al. [16, 17]
Retinopathy to CHD 0.028 0.016 0.043 Klein et al. [18]
Cost Parameters [Annual or initial costs represented in 2007 US$] c     
Blindness and retinopathy 9,912 7,251 12,945 ADA [1]
CGM technology 4,189 3,062 5,492 CGM website [24]
Initial cost of CGM technology 4,809 3,499 6,321 CGM website [24]
CHD 35,271 25,820 46,433 ADA [1]
Diabetes with no complications 6,705 4,879 8,788 ADA [1]
ESRD 36,370 26,377 47,708 ADA [1]
LEA 50,150 36,541 65,798 ADA [1]
Nephropathy 20,161 14,614 26,643 ADA [1]
Neuropathy 25,075 18,226 33,004 ADA [1]
Retinopathy 4,956 3,578 6,489 ADA [1]
Utility Parameters [Annual cycle length] a     
Blindness 0.569 0.531 0.607 Sullivan et al. [22] ICD-9 250
CHD 0.552 0.513 0.591 Sullivan et al. [22] ICD-9 250, 593
ESRD 0.521 0.485 0.558 Sullivan et al. [22] ICD-9 250, 355
LEA 0.572 0.538 0.604 Sullivan et al. [22] ICD-9 250, 362
Nephropathy 0.575 0.545 0.606 Sullivan et al. [22] ICD-9 250, 355, 593
Nephropathy and CHD 0.516 0.465 0.567 Sullivan et al. [22] ICD-9 250, 593, 410, 413
Neuropathy 0.603 0.573 0.632 Sullivan et al. [22] ICD-9 250, 355, 410, 413
Neuropathy and CHD 0.544 0.495 0.593 Sullivan et al. [22] ICD-9 250, 362, 410, 413
Neuropathy and nephropathy 0.557 0.520 0.595 Sullivan et al. [22] ICD-9 250, 410, 413
Diabetes with no complications 0.757 0.747 0.767 Sullivan et al. [22] ICD-9 250, 593, 586
Retinopathy 0.612 0.581 0.643 Sullivan et al. [22] ICD-9 250, 355, 354
Retinopathy and CHD 0.553 0.503 0.605 Sullivan et al. [22] ICD-9 250, 362, 369
Disutility of age -0.0003    Sullivan et al. [22]
Other Parameters d     
CGM risk reduction for CHD 0.050 0.013 0.107 DCCT [20]
CGM risk reduction for nephropathy 0.270 0.006 0.768 DCCT [20]
CGM risk reduction for neuropathy 0.188 0.004 0.593 DCCT [20]
CGM risk reduction for retinopathy 0.306 0.075 0.618 Selvin et al. [21]
Start age 40    Assumption
Years since diagnosis 20    Assumption
Discount rate 0.03    Assumption
  1. a Beta distribution assumed
  2. b Credible range of values from the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the 10,000 second order Monte Carlo simulations
  3. c Gamma distribution assumed for all cost parameters
  4. d Beta distribution assumed for all risk reduction parameters; start age, years since diagnosis, and discount rate were not varied