Table 1 Data parameters used in model: description, base case estimate, range tested in one-way sensitivity analyses and sources

Parameter description Base estimate Range tested Sources
Quit rates: 12-month continuous abstinence
a) Genetic Test 11% 7-22% [12]
b) Usual treatment 6% 3-12% [17]
Relapse rate after 12-month quit 10% in years 2-6, 4% after1   [15]
Lung cancer incidence Annual from age 40, e.g., 0.0018024 at age 65 years1   [32]
Relative risk of lung cancer in heavy smokers compared to general population 6.609 and   [18]
Relative risk of lung cancer in ex-smokers compared to general population Annual from 5-year age group by time since quit e.g, ages 50-55 years RR = 4.751
Survival/mortality rates (background population) Annual by age e.g, age 65 annual dying rate = 0.009361   ABS Life Tables 2005-072
Survival rates of lung cancer Annual survival at 1 year 36% to 12% at 5 years   AIHW [33]
Proportion of
a) early lung cancer 20% 13-23% [33], authors assumption3
b) adv lung cancer 80% 77-87%
Utility scores
a) Early stage lung cancer (I&II) 0.73 0.69-0.83 [23, 34]
b) Adv stage lung cancer (III&IV) 0.66 0.30-0.76 [23, 34]
c) No lung cancer 1 - authors assumption
Lung cancer healthcare costs
a) Early lung cancer 1st year (NSCLC only) 44,274   [35, 36]
b) Adv lung cancer + SCLC 1st year 27,057 All ± 30% [35, 36]
c) Ongoing costs (stable disease) 7,115   [36, 37]
d) Progressive disease 10,945   [36, 37]
e) Terminal care (final year) 9,961   [36, 37]
1. 1. Tables are used rather than one point estimate to account for different values that change over time. Values will alter when individuals age.
2. 2. Epidemiological data and cost data are from slightly different years; data from these life-tables are from 2005-2007 while costs in 2009 AU\$.
3. 3. A proportion of approx. 8% of lung cancers are 'unstaged' but to avoid losing these people in the model, the proportion unstaged was assumed to be equally split into early and advanced disease groups.
4. Abbreviations: ABS - Australian Bureau of Statistics, AIHW - Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, NSCLC - non-small cell lung cancer, SCLC - small cell lung cancer.