Table 1 Annual transition probabilities for the natural history model
Parameters | Age | Transition probability | Time period | References |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Normal | ||||
Uninfected to Cervical HPV infection (HPV incidence) | 10–12 | 0.0000 | 12 months | Calibrated from Canfell et al17 |
13 | 0.0100 | 12 months | ||
14 | 0.0300 | 12 months | ||
15 | 0.0400 | 12 months | ||
16 | 0.0460 | 12 months | ||
17 | 0.0700 | 12 months | ||
18 | 0.0700 | 12 months | ||
19 | 0.1700 | 12 months | ||
20–21 | 0.2000 | 12 months | ||
22 | 0.1200 | 12 months | ||
23 | 0.1100 | 12 months | ||
24–29 | 0.0850 | 12 months | ||
30–33 | 0.0320 | 12 months | ||
34–49 | 0.0170 | 12 months | ||
50+ | 0.0095 | 12 months | ||
HPV infected state | ||||
Progression from HPV infection to SIL – all risk HPV | 0.0959 | 12 months | Canfell et al17 | |
Percentage CIN 2 among SIL | 0.1350 | 12 months | Calibrated based on Myers et al12 and Canfell et al17 | |
Regression of CIN 1 to normal from HPV infection | 12–24 | 0.7000 | 18 months | Calibrated based on Myers et al12 and Canfell et al17 |
25–29 | 0.5000 | 18 months | ||
30–39 | 0.4000 | 18 months | ||
40–49 | 0.2700 | 18 months | ||
50+ | 0.1000 | 18 months | ||
CIN 1 | Canfell et al17 | |||
Progression from CIN 1 to CIN 2 – all risk HPV | 16–34 | 0.0297 | 12 months | |
35+ | 0.1485 | 12 months | ||
Progression from CIN 1 to CIN 3 – all risk HPV | 0.0301 | 12 months | ||
Regression to HPV infected state – all risk HPV | 16–34 | 0.2248 | 12 months | |
35+ | 0.1124 | 12 months | ||
Proportion regressing to normal | 0.9000 | 12 months | ||
CIN 2 | Canfell et al17 | |||
Progression from CIN 2 to CIN 3 | 16–34 | 0.0389 | 12 months | |
35–44 | 0.0797 | 12 months | ||
45+ | 0.1062 | 12 months | ||
Regression from CIN 2 to CIN 1 | 0.2430 | 12 months | ||
Regression from CIN 2 to uninfected or HPV infections | 0.1901 | 12 months | ||
Proportion regressing directly to normal | 0.9000 | 12 months | ||
CIN 3 | Canfell et al17 | |||
Regression CIN 3 to CIN 1 – all risk HPV | 0.0000 | 12 months | ||
Regression from CIN 3 to CIN 2 – all risk HPV | 0.0135 | 12 months | ||
CIN 3 to uninfected or HPV infection | 16–44 | 0.0135 | 12 months | |
45+ | 0.0100 | 12 months | ||
Proportion CIN 3 regressing directly to uninfected | 0.5000 | 12 months | ||
Proportion CIN 3 progressing to FIGO I cancer | 0.0127 | 12 months | ||
Cervical cancer | Myers et al12 | |||
FIGO 1 | ||||
Progression rates | 0.9000 | 48 months | ||
Probability of symptoms | 0.1850 | 12 months | ||
FIGO 2 | ||||
Progression rates | 0.9000 | 36 months | ||
Probability of symptoms | 0.3000 | 12 months | ||
FIGO 3 | ||||
Progression rates | 0.9000 | 15 months | ||
Probability of symptoms | 0.7500 | 12 months | ||
FIGO 4 | ||||
Probability of symptoms | 0.8000 | 12 months | ||
Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 1 | Cancer Research UK 21 | |||
1 Year survival | 0.977 | 12 months | ||
2 Year survival | 0.978 | 12 months | ||
3 Year survival | 0.963 | 12 months | ||
4 Year survival | 0.988 | 12 months | ||
5 Year survival | 0.988 | 12 months | ||
Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 2 | ||||
1 Year survival | 0.830 | 12 months | ||
2 Year survival | 0.835 | 12 months | ||
3 Year survival | 0.755 | 12 months | ||
4 Year survival | 0.870 | 12 months | ||
5 Year survival | 0.899 | 12 months | ||
Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 3 | ||||
1 Year survival | 0.590 | 12 months | ||
2 Year survival | 0.693 | 12 months | ||
3 Year survival | 0.778 | 12 months | ||
4 Year survival | 0.928 | 12 months | ||
5 Year survival | 0.963 | 12 months | ||
Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 4 | ||||
1 Year survival | 0.523 | 12 months | ||
2 Year survival | 0.782 | 12 months | ||
3 Year survival | 0.721 | 12 months | ||
4 Year survival | 0.925 | 12 months | ||
5 Year survival | 0.956 | 12 months |