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Table 1 Annual transition probabilities for the natural history model

From: Adding a quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine to the UK cervical cancer screening programme: A cost-effectiveness analysis

Parameters Age Transition probability Time period References
Normal     
Uninfected to Cervical HPV infection (HPV incidence) 10–12 0.0000 12 months Calibrated from Canfell et al17
  13 0.0100 12 months  
  14 0.0300 12 months  
  15 0.0400 12 months  
  16 0.0460 12 months  
  17 0.0700 12 months  
  18 0.0700 12 months  
  19 0.1700 12 months  
  20–21 0.2000 12 months  
  22 0.1200 12 months  
  23 0.1100 12 months  
  24–29 0.0850 12 months  
  30–33 0.0320 12 months  
  34–49 0.0170 12 months  
  50+ 0.0095 12 months  
HPV infected state     
Progression from HPV infection to SIL – all risk HPV   0.0959 12 months Canfell et al17
Percentage CIN 2 among SIL   0.1350 12 months Calibrated based on Myers et al12 and Canfell et al17
Regression of CIN 1 to normal from HPV infection 12–24 0.7000 18 months Calibrated based on Myers et al12 and Canfell et al17
  25–29 0.5000 18 months  
  30–39 0.4000 18 months  
  40–49 0.2700 18 months  
  50+ 0.1000 18 months  
CIN 1     Canfell et al17
Progression from CIN 1 to CIN 2 – all risk HPV 16–34 0.0297 12 months  
  35+ 0.1485 12 months  
Progression from CIN 1 to CIN 3 – all risk HPV   0.0301 12 months  
Regression to HPV infected state – all risk HPV 16–34 0.2248 12 months  
  35+ 0.1124 12 months  
Proportion regressing to normal   0.9000 12 months  
CIN 2     Canfell et al17
Progression from CIN 2 to CIN 3 16–34 0.0389 12 months  
  35–44 0.0797 12 months  
  45+ 0.1062 12 months  
Regression from CIN 2 to CIN 1   0.2430 12 months  
Regression from CIN 2 to uninfected or HPV infections   0.1901 12 months  
Proportion regressing directly to normal   0.9000 12 months  
CIN 3     Canfell et al17
Regression CIN 3 to CIN 1 – all risk HPV   0.0000 12 months  
Regression from CIN 3 to CIN 2 – all risk HPV   0.0135 12 months  
CIN 3 to uninfected or HPV infection 16–44 0.0135 12 months  
  45+ 0.0100 12 months  
Proportion CIN 3 regressing directly to uninfected   0.5000 12 months  
Proportion CIN 3 progressing to FIGO I cancer   0.0127 12 months  
Cervical cancer     Myers et al12
FIGO 1     
Progression rates   0.9000 48 months  
Probability of symptoms   0.1850 12 months  
FIGO 2     
Progression rates   0.9000 36 months  
Probability of symptoms   0.3000 12 months  
FIGO 3     
Progression rates   0.9000 15 months  
Probability of symptoms   0.7500 12 months  
FIGO 4     
Probability of symptoms   0.8000 12 months  
Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 1     Cancer Research UK 21
1 Year survival   0.977 12 months  
2 Year survival   0.978 12 months  
3 Year survival   0.963 12 months  
4 Year survival   0.988 12 months  
5 Year survival   0.988 12 months  
Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 2     
1 Year survival   0.830 12 months  
2 Year survival   0.835 12 months  
3 Year survival   0.755 12 months  
4 Year survival   0.870 12 months  
5 Year survival   0.899 12 months  
Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 3     
1 Year survival   0.590 12 months  
2 Year survival   0.693 12 months  
3 Year survival   0.778 12 months  
4 Year survival   0.928 12 months  
5 Year survival   0.963 12 months  
Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 4     
1 Year survival   0.523 12 months  
2 Year survival   0.782 12 months  
3 Year survival   0.721 12 months  
4 Year survival   0.925 12 months  
5 Year survival   0.956 12 months