Adding a quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine to the UK cervical cancer screening programme: A cost-effectiveness analysis

Kulasingam, Shalini L; Benard, Steve; Barnabas, Ruanne V; Largeron, Nathalie; Myers, Evan R

doi:10.1186/1478-7547-6-4

Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation

Table 1 Annual transition probabilities for the natural history model

From: Adding a quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine to the UK cervical cancer screening programme: A cost-effectiveness analysis

Parameters	Age	Transition probability	Time period	References
*Normal*
Uninfected to Cervical HPV infection (HPV incidence)	10–12	0.0000	12 months	Calibrated from Canfell et al¹⁷
	13	0.0100	12 months
	14	0.0300	12 months
	15	0.0400	12 months
	16	0.0460	12 months
	17	0.0700	12 months
	18	0.0700	12 months
	19	0.1700	12 months
	20–21	0.2000	12 months
	22	0.1200	12 months
	23	0.1100	12 months
	24–29	0.0850	12 months
	30–33	0.0320	12 months
	34–49	0.0170	12 months
	50+	0.0095	12 months
*HPV infected state*
Progression from HPV infection to SIL – all risk HPV		0.0959	12 months	Canfell et al¹⁷
Percentage CIN 2 among SIL		0.1350	12 months	Calibrated based on Myers et al¹² and Canfell et al¹⁷
Regression of CIN 1 to normal from HPV infection	12–24	0.7000	18 months	Calibrated based on Myers et al¹² and Canfell et al¹⁷
	25–29	0.5000	18 months
	30–39	0.4000	18 months
	40–49	0.2700	18 months
	50+	0.1000	18 months
*CIN 1*				Canfell et al¹⁷
Progression from CIN 1 to CIN 2 – all risk HPV	16–34	0.0297	12 months
	35+	0.1485	12 months
Progression from CIN 1 to CIN 3 – all risk HPV		0.0301	12 months
Regression to HPV infected state – all risk HPV	16–34	0.2248	12 months
	35+	0.1124	12 months
Proportion regressing to normal		0.9000	12 months
CIN 2				Canfell et al¹⁷
Progression from CIN 2 to CIN 3	16–34	0.0389	12 months
	35–44	0.0797	12 months
	45+	0.1062	12 months
Regression from CIN 2 to CIN 1		0.2430	12 months
Regression from CIN 2 to uninfected or HPV infections		0.1901	12 months
Proportion regressing directly to normal		0.9000	12 months
*CIN 3*				Canfell et al¹⁷
Regression CIN 3 to CIN 1 – all risk HPV		0.0000	12 months
Regression from CIN 3 to CIN 2 – all risk HPV		0.0135	12 months
CIN 3 to uninfected or HPV infection	16–44	0.0135	12 months
	45+	0.0100	12 months
Proportion CIN 3 regressing directly to uninfected		0.5000	12 months
Proportion CIN 3 progressing to FIGO I cancer		0.0127	12 months
Cervical cancer				Myers et al¹²
FIGO 1
Progression rates		0.9000	48 months
Probability of symptoms		0.1850	12 months
FIGO 2
Progression rates		0.9000	36 months
Probability of symptoms		0.3000	12 months
FIGO 3
Progression rates		0.9000	15 months
Probability of symptoms		0.7500	12 months
FIGO 4
Probability of symptoms		0.8000	12 months
Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 1				Cancer Research UK ²¹
1 Year survival		0.977	12 months
2 Year survival		0.978	12 months
3 Year survival		0.963	12 months
4 Year survival		0.988	12 months
5 Year survival		0.988	12 months
Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 2
1 Year survival		0.830	12 months
2 Year survival		0.835	12 months
3 Year survival		0.755	12 months
4 Year survival		0.870	12 months
5 Year survival		0.899	12 months
Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 3
1 Year survival		0.590	12 months
2 Year survival		0.693	12 months
3 Year survival		0.778	12 months
4 Year survival		0.928	12 months
5 Year survival		0.963	12 months
Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 4
1 Year survival		0.523	12 months
2 Year survival		0.782	12 months
3 Year survival		0.721	12 months
4 Year survival		0.925	12 months
5 Year survival		0.956	12 months

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ISSN: 1478-7547

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