The Quit Benefits Model: a Markov model for assessing the health benefits and health care cost savings of quitting smoking

Table 4 Model parameters* for function describing the decline in all causes mortality after quitting

Sex	Age	Estimated τ	Asymptotic Standard Error	Asymptotic 95% CI	rr _∞
Male	< 50	63	60	-60 – 186	0.427
	50 – 59	110	22	64 – 156	0.355
	60 – 69	150	16	117 – 184	0.357
	70 – 79	187	22	143 – 231	0.397
	≥ 80	202	57	86 – 318	0.553
Female	< 50	101	143	-191 – 393	0.595
	50 – 59	71	31	7 – 134	0.431
	60 – 69	132	22	88 – 176	0.398
	70 – 79	146	21	103 – 190	0.407
	≥ 80	190	52	84 – 296	0.553

* The model fitted was: ln(RR(t)) = ln((RR₀-1)*e^{-t/ τ}+ 1) + ε, where RR(t) = the risk of death for an ex-smoker who ceased smoking t months ago relative to a never-smoker; RR₀= RR(0), the relative risk of death for a current smoker versus a never-smoker. rr_∞ = the relative risk of death for a never-smoker versus a current smoker (By definition, RR₀ = 1/rr_∞). τ is a slope parameter which is inversely proportional to the rate at which the relative risk decreases with time since quitting.

ISSN: 1478-7547