Is it worth offering a routine laparoscopic cholecystectomy in developing countries? A Thailand case study

Table 1 Corresponding transitional probabilities of epidemiological variables and the utility values

Input Variables	Point estimates (mean)	Standard error for uncertainty analysis	Data sources
Epidemiological variables
Probability of having suspected signs of CBD stones	0.3439	0.0123	22–24
Probability of having CBD stones among suspected cases	0.2929	0.0455	1
Proportion of ERCP available for patients who need it	0.5000	0.0498	Expert opinion
Probability of conversion from LC to OC	0.0550	0.0010	12, 24, 26
Probability of bile duct injury among patients undergoing LC	0.0050	0.0003	12
Probability of bile duct injury among patients conversed from LC to OC	0.0030	0.0017	Expert opinion
Probability of bile duct injury among patients undergoing OC	0.0024	0.0004	12
Probability of bile duct injury among patients undergoing open explored CBD	0.0010	0.0010	Expert opinion
Probability of retained CBD stones after undergoing ERCP	0.1279	0.0358	24–26
Utility variables
Utility of case with completed OC	0.80	0.02	16
Utility of case with completed LC	0.90	0.02	16
Utility of case with bile-duct injury in the first year	0.80	0.02	16
Utility of case with bile-duct injury in the subsequent twenty years	0.89	0.01	16

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