Table 2 Model parameters
From: Comparing the cost effectiveness of harm reduction strategies: a case study of the Ukraine
Simulation parameters | Â | Â | Â | Â |
|---|---|---|---|---|
HIV incidence | Base case value | Duration | Distribution | Source |
Number of injections | 400.00 | 1Â year | Â | |
reduction in frequency of drug injections per day from the cohort data | 0.85 | 1Â year | Â | Alistar, Owens, and Brandeau [19] |
Pr of transmission | 0.01 | 1Â year | Â | Gouws et al. [30] |
using sterile injection equipment or condom or methadone | 0.90 | 1Â year | Â | Assumed based on Cao et al. [31]; Vickerman et al. [25]; Alistar et al. [19] |
number of days follow up | 60Â cycle(5Â years) | 60Â months(treatment) | Â | Global Fund [7] |
HIV prevalence among IDUs(NSP) | 0.43 | 1Â year | Â | Calculated using Vickerman et al. [25] |
HIV prevalence among IDUs(OST) | 0.28 | 1Â year | Â | Calculated using Vickerman et al. [25]; Alistar, Owens, and Brandeau [19] |
HIV prevalence among IDUs(NSP&OST) | 0.18 | 1Â year | Â | Calculated using Degenhardt et al. [10] |
Decrease in HIV incidence(NSP) | 0.22 | 1Â year | Â | Vickerman et al. [25] |
Decrease in HIV incidence (OST) | 0.53 | 1Â year | Â | Alistar, Owens, and Brandeau [19] |
Decrease in HIV incidence (NSP&OST) | 0.66 | 1Â year | Â | Degenhardt et al. [10] |
Probability | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Pr(attend to intervention) | 0.0750 | 1Â cycle | Beta | Assumed |
Pr(mortality) if no intervention | 0.03 | 1Â cycle | Beta | Vickerman et al. [25] |
Pr(infected) if no intervention | 0.0446 | 1Â cycle | Beta | Vickerman et al. [25] |
Pr(well) if no intervention | 0.0388 | 1Â cycle | Beta | calculated |
Pr(drop) from NSP&OST | 0.0083 | 1Â cycle | Beta | Calculated Pr(attend to intervention) |
Pr(infected) from NSP&OST | 0.0003 | 1Â cycle | Beta | Degenhardt et al. [10] |
Pr(well) from NSP&OST | 0.9914 | 1Â cycle | Beta | Calculated |
Pr(drop) from NSP | 0.0083 | 1Â cycle | Beta | Calculated Pr(attend to intervention) |
Pr(infected) from NSP | 0.0005 | 1Â cycle | Beta | Vickerman et al. [25] |
Pr(well) from NSP | 0.9912 | 1Â cycle | Beta | Calculated |
Pr(drop) from OST | 0.0083 | 1Â cycle | Beta | Calculated Pr(attend to intervention) |
Pr(infected) from OST | 0.0004 | 1Â cycle | Beta | Alistar, Owens, and Brandeau[19] |
Pr(well) from OST | 0.9913 | 1Â cycle | Beta | Calculated |
Pr(infected) if dropped from intervention | 0.0446 | 1Â cycle | Beta | Vickerman et al. [25] |
Pr(well) if dropped from intervention | 0.9554 | 1Â cycle | Beta | Calculated |
Pr(drop) if infected from NSP&OST | 0.0102 | 1Â cycle | Beta | |
Pr(attend) if infected from NSP&OST | 0.9898 | 1Â cycle | Beta | Calculated |
Pr(drop) if infected from NSP | 0.0196 | 1Â cycle | Beta | Jones et al. [11] |
Pr(attend) if infected from NSP | 0.9804 | 1Â cycle | Beta | Calculated |
Pr(drop) if infected from OST | 0.0433 | 1Â cycle | Beta | Yin et al. [32] |
Pr(well) if infected from OST | 0.9567 | 1Â cycle | Beta | Calculated |
QOL | Â | Â | Â | Â |
NSP | 0.85 | Â | Normal | Vickerman et al. [33] |
OST | 0.74(average value for 54Â week) | Â | Normal | Connock et al. [12] |
NSP & OST | 0.95 | Â | Normal | Vickerman et al. [33] |
Infected(dropped) | 0.63 | Â | Normal | Connock et al. [12] |
Cost | Â | Â | Â | Â |
NSP | Â | Â | Â | Â |
unit cost per patient | 151.14 | 1Â year | gamma | Global Fund [7] |
Fixed | 1197008.80 | 1Â year | gamma | Estimated from the Global Fund grant proposal |
OST | Â | Â | Â | Â |
unit cost per patient | 1752.00 | 1Â year | gamma | WHO medical database |
Fixed | 700050.60 | 1Â year | gamma | Estimated from the Global Fund grant proposal |
NSP&OST | Â | Â | Â | Â |
unit cost per patient(per year) | 1903.14 | 1Â year | gamma | Global Fund [7], WHO medical database |
Fixed | 168286.96 | 1Â year | gamma | Assumed from the Global Fund grant proposal |
Other parameters | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Consumer price index(CPI) | 1.5680 | Â | Â | WorldBank [34] |
Time horizon | 5Â years | Â | Â | WHO [35] |
Discount rate for cost | 0.03 | Â | Uniform | WHO [35] |
Discount rate for outcome | 0.03 | Â | Uniform | WHO [35] |
Population(NSP) | 11000.00 | Â | Â | Global Fund [7] |
Population(OST) | 5000.00 | Â | Â | Global Fund [7] |
Population(NSP & OST) | 6000.00 | Â | Â | Global Fund [7] |
Initial HIV prevalence among IDUs | 0.53 | 1Â year | Â | Vickerman et al. [25] |
IDU mortality rate per 1000 person-years | 0.4 | 1Â year | Â | Vickerman et al. [25] |