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Table 2 Model parameters

From: Comparing the cost effectiveness of harm reduction strategies: a case study of the Ukraine

Simulation parameters     
HIV incidence Base case value Duration Distribution Source
Number of injections 400.00 1 year   Degenhardt et al. [10] Aceijas et al. [3]
reduction in frequency of drug injections per day from the cohort data 0.85 1 year   Alistar, Owens, and Brandeau [19]
Pr of transmission 0.01 1 year   Gouws et al. [30]
using sterile injection equipment or condom or methadone 0.90 1 year   Assumed based on Cao et al. [31]; Vickerman et al. [25]; Alistar et al. [19]
number of days follow up 60 cycle(5 years) 60 months(treatment)   Global Fund [7]
HIV prevalence among IDUs(NSP) 0.43 1 year   Calculated using Vickerman et al. [25]
HIV prevalence among IDUs(OST) 0.28 1 year   Calculated using Vickerman et al. [25]; Alistar, Owens, and Brandeau [19]
HIV prevalence among IDUs(NSP&OST) 0.18 1 year   Calculated using Degenhardt et al. [10]
Decrease in HIV incidence(NSP) 0.22 1 year   Vickerman et al. [25]
Decrease in HIV incidence (OST) 0.53 1 year   Alistar, Owens, and Brandeau [19]
Decrease in HIV incidence (NSP&OST) 0.66 1 year   Degenhardt et al. [10]
Probability     
Pr(attend to intervention) 0.0750 1 cycle Beta Assumed
Pr(mortality) if no intervention 0.03 1 cycle Beta Vickerman et al. [25]
Pr(infected) if no intervention 0.0446 1 cycle Beta Vickerman et al. [25]
Pr(well) if no intervention 0.0388 1 cycle Beta calculated
Pr(drop) from NSP&OST 0.0083 1 cycle Beta Calculated Pr(attend to intervention)
Pr(infected) from NSP&OST 0.0003 1 cycle Beta Degenhardt et al. [10]
Pr(well) from NSP&OST 0.9914 1 cycle Beta Calculated
Pr(drop) from NSP 0.0083 1 cycle Beta Calculated Pr(attend to intervention)
Pr(infected) from NSP 0.0005 1 cycle Beta Vickerman et al. [25]
Pr(well) from NSP 0.9912 1 cycle Beta Calculated
Pr(drop) from OST 0.0083 1 cycle Beta Calculated Pr(attend to intervention)
Pr(infected) from OST 0.0004 1 cycle Beta Alistar, Owens, and Brandeau[19]
Pr(well) from OST 0.9913 1 cycle Beta Calculated
Pr(infected) if dropped from intervention 0.0446 1 cycle Beta Vickerman et al. [25]
Pr(well) if dropped from intervention 0.9554 1 cycle Beta Calculated
Pr(drop) if infected from NSP&OST 0.0102 1 cycle Beta Yin et al. [32]; Jones et al. [11]
Pr(attend) if infected from NSP&OST 0.9898 1 cycle Beta Calculated
Pr(drop) if infected from NSP 0.0196 1 cycle Beta Jones et al. [11]
Pr(attend) if infected from NSP 0.9804 1 cycle Beta Calculated
Pr(drop) if infected from OST 0.0433 1 cycle Beta Yin et al. [32]
Pr(well) if infected from OST 0.9567 1 cycle Beta Calculated
QOL     
NSP 0.85   Normal Vickerman et al. [33]
OST 0.74(average value for 54 week)   Normal Connock et al. [12]
NSP & OST 0.95   Normal Vickerman et al. [33]
Infected(dropped) 0.63   Normal Connock et al. [12]
Cost     
NSP     
unit cost per patient 151.14 1 year gamma Global Fund [7]
Fixed 1197008.80 1 year gamma Estimated from the Global Fund grant proposal
OST     
unit cost per patient 1752.00 1 year gamma WHO medical database
Fixed 700050.60 1 year gamma Estimated from the Global Fund grant proposal
NSP&OST     
unit cost per patient(per year) 1903.14 1 year gamma Global Fund [7], WHO medical database
Fixed 168286.96 1 year gamma Assumed from the Global Fund grant proposal
Other parameters     
Consumer price index(CPI) 1.5680    WorldBank [34]
Time horizon 5 years    WHO [35]
Discount rate for cost 0.03   Uniform WHO [35]
Discount rate for outcome 0.03   Uniform WHO [35]
Population(NSP) 11000.00    Global Fund [7]
Population(OST) 5000.00    Global Fund [7]
Population(NSP & OST) 6000.00    Global Fund [7]
Initial HIV prevalence among IDUs 0.53 1 year   Vickerman et al. [25]
IDU mortality rate per 1000 person-years 0.4 1 year   Vickerman et al. [25]
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