From: Comparing the cost effectiveness of harm reduction strategies: a case study of the Ukraine

Simulation parameters | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|

HIV incidence
| Base case value | Duration | Distribution | Source |

Number of injections | 400.00 | 1 year | Degenhardt et al. [10] Aceijas et al. [3] | |

reduction in frequency of drug injections per day from the cohort data | 0.85 | 1 year | Alistar, Owens, and Brandeau [19] | |

Pr of transmission | 0.01 | 1 year | Gouws et al. [30] | |

using sterile injection equipment or condom or methadone | 0.90 | 1 year | Assumed based on Cao et al. [31]; Vickerman et al. [25]; Alistar et al. [19] | |

number of days follow up | 60 cycle(5 years) | 60 months(treatment) | Global Fund [7] | |

HIV prevalence among IDUs(NSP) | 0.43 | 1 year | Calculated using Vickerman et al. [25] | |

HIV prevalence among IDUs(OST) | 0.28 | 1 year | Calculated using Vickerman et al. [25]; Alistar, Owens, and Brandeau [19] | |

HIV prevalence among IDUs(NSP&OST) | 0.18 | 1 year | Calculated using Degenhardt et al. [10] | |

Decrease in HIV incidence(NSP) | 0.22 | 1 year | Vickerman et al. [25] | |

Decrease in HIV incidence (OST) | 0.53 | 1 year | Alistar, Owens, and Brandeau [19] | |

Decrease in HIV incidence (NSP&OST) | 0.66 | 1 year | Degenhardt et al. [10] | |

Probability
| ||||

Pr(attend to intervention) | 0.0750 | 1 cycle | Beta | Assumed |

Pr(mortality) if no intervention | 0.03 | 1 cycle | Beta | Vickerman et al. [25] |

Pr(infected) if no intervention | 0.0446 | 1 cycle | Beta | Vickerman et al. [25] |

Pr(well) if no intervention | 0.0388 | 1 cycle | Beta | calculated |

Pr(drop) from NSP&OST | 0.0083 | 1 cycle | Beta | Calculated Pr(attend to intervention) |

Pr(infected) from NSP&OST | 0.0003 | 1 cycle | Beta | Degenhardt et al. [10] |

Pr(well) from NSP&OST | 0.9914 | 1 cycle | Beta | Calculated |

Pr(drop) from NSP | 0.0083 | 1 cycle | Beta | Calculated Pr(attend to intervention) |

Pr(infected) from NSP | 0.0005 | 1 cycle | Beta | Vickerman et al. [25] |

Pr(well) from NSP | 0.9912 | 1 cycle | Beta | Calculated |

Pr(drop) from OST | 0.0083 | 1 cycle | Beta | Calculated Pr(attend to intervention) |

Pr(infected) from OST | 0.0004 | 1 cycle | Beta | Alistar, Owens, and Brandeau[19] |

Pr(well) from OST | 0.9913 | 1 cycle | Beta | Calculated |

Pr(infected) if dropped from intervention | 0.0446 | 1 cycle | Beta | Vickerman et al. [25] |

Pr(well) if dropped from intervention | 0.9554 | 1 cycle | Beta | Calculated |

Pr(drop) if infected from NSP&OST | 0.0102 | 1 cycle | Beta | Yin et al. [32]; Jones et al. [11] |

Pr(attend) if infected from NSP&OST | 0.9898 | 1 cycle | Beta | Calculated |

Pr(drop) if infected from NSP | 0.0196 | 1 cycle | Beta | Jones et al. [11] |

Pr(attend) if infected from NSP | 0.9804 | 1 cycle | Beta | Calculated |

Pr(drop) if infected from OST | 0.0433 | 1 cycle | Beta | Yin et al. [32] |

Pr(well) if infected from OST | 0.9567 | 1 cycle | Beta | Calculated |

QOL
| ||||

NSP | 0.85 | Normal | Vickerman et al. [33] | |

OST | 0.74(average value for 54 week) | Normal | Connock et al. [12] | |

NSP & OST | 0.95 | Normal | Vickerman et al. [33] | |

Infected(dropped) | 0.63 | Normal | Connock et al. [12] | |

Cost
| ||||

NSP | ||||

unit cost per patient | 151.14 | 1 year | gamma | Global Fund [7] |

Fixed | 1197008.80 | 1 year | gamma | Estimated from the Global Fund grant proposal |

OST | ||||

unit cost per patient | 1752.00 | 1 year | gamma | WHO medical database |

Fixed | 700050.60 | 1 year | gamma | Estimated from the Global Fund grant proposal |

NSP&OST | ||||

unit cost per patient(per year) | 1903.14 | 1 year | gamma | Global Fund [7], WHO medical database |

Fixed | 168286.96 | 1 year | gamma | Assumed from the Global Fund grant proposal |

Other parameters
| ||||

Consumer price index(CPI) | 1.5680 | WorldBank [34] | ||

Time horizon | 5 years | WHO [35] | ||

Discount rate for cost | 0.03 | Uniform | WHO [35] | |

Discount rate for outcome | 0.03 | Uniform | WHO [35] | |

Population(NSP) | 11000.00 | Global Fund [7] | ||

Population(OST) | 5000.00 | Global Fund [7] | ||

Population(NSP & OST) | 6000.00 | Global Fund [7] | ||

Initial HIV prevalence among IDUs | 0.53 | 1 year | Vickerman et al. [25] | |

IDU mortality rate per 1000 person-years | 0.4 | 1 year | Vickerman et al. [25] |