Figure 3

Sensitivity analysis: impact of increasing treatment capacity over time. This figure illustrates the impact on two health outcomes of increasing treatment capacity over time, while holding the incidence of newly detected patients constant. On the horizontal axis is the annual increase in the number of treatment “slots”. Variation in the number of additional treatment slots annually impacts life expectancy per cohort (left vertical axis) and the mean number initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) annually (right vertical axis). Below an annual increase of approximately 4,000 treatment slots, life expectancy per cohort under the Alternative strategy (dashed line) exceeds life expectancy per cohort under the Status Quo (solid line). Above this threshold, the relationship reverses and life expectancy per cohort under the Status Quo exceeds that under the Alternative strategy. In contrast, regardless of the annual increase in treatment capacity, the mean number initiating ART annually under the Alternative strategy (orange) always is greater than the mean number initiating ART annually under the Status Quo (blue). However, the difference in the mean number initiating ART annually between the two strategies begins to decrease when treatment capacity exceeds 62,000 treatment slots, or an approximate 25% increase, at any one time.