Table 2 Presentation of the six epidemic scenarios (A, B, C, D, E) identified by the combination of selected parameters published in Eurosurveillance, from Napoli et al. [5]
Pandemic scenario | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A: Seasonal like % | B: 2009 pandemic like % | C: Community risk /low virulence% | D: Community risk /high virulence %b | E: High risk groups /age classes % | F: Major event % | ||
Transmission | CAR | 0–5 | 5–10 | 10–25 | 10–25 | 10–25 | 25–35 |
Virulence | CFR | 0–0.01 | 0–0.01 | 0–0.01 | 0.01–0.05 | 0.05–0.8 | 0.8–2.5 |
Medical ressources utilization | HAR | 0–0.02 | 0.2–2 | 0–0.02 | 0.2–2 | 0.2–2 | 2–4 |
ICUS | 0–0.01 | 0–0.01 | 0–0.01 | 2.5–5 | 2.5–5 | 5–35 | |