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Table 2 Annual transition probabilities

From: An ex-ante cost-utility analysis of the deemed consent legislation compared to expressed consent for kidney transplantations in Nova Scotia

Probability

Mean

SD

Distribution in

PSA

Source

Graft failure: KT from a deceased donor

Years 1 − 3: 0.063

0.006

Beta

Canadian Organ Replacement Register

Years 4 − 5: 0.113

0.011

Beta

Years 6 − 9: 0.168

0.017

Beta

Years 10 + : 0.318

0.032

Beta

Graft failure: KT from a living donor

Years 1 − 3: 0.028

0.003

Beta

Canadian Organ Replacement Register

Years 4 − 5: 0.058

0.006

Beta

Years 6 − 9: 0.095

0.009

Beta

Years 10 + : 0.226

0.023

Beta

Deceased donor KT

Year 1: 0.156

0.016

Beta

Estimateda

Year 2: 0.230

0.023

Beta

 

Year 3: 0.278

0.028

Beta

 

Year 4: 0.314

0.031

Beta

 

Year 5: 0.335

0.034

Beta

 

Year 6: 0.364

0.036

Beta

 

Year 7: 0.378

0.038

Beta

 

Year 8: 0.402

0.040

Beta

 

Year 9: 0.411

0.041

Beta

 

Years 10 + : 0.441

0.044

Beta

 

Death on hemodialysis

Years 1 − 3: 0.178

0.018

Beta

Canadian Organ Replacement Register

Years 4 − 5: 0.335

0.034

Beta

Years 6 − 9: 0.446

0.045

Beta

Years 10 + : 0.581

0.058

Beta

Death on peritoneal dialysis

Years 1 − 3: 0.075

0.008

Beta

Canadian Organ Replacement Register

Years 4 − 5: 0.248

0.025

Beta

Years 6 − 9: 0.380

0.038

Beta

Years 10 + : 0.556

0.056

Beta

Death after graft failure

Year 1: 0.121

0.012

Beta

Kabani et al.

Year 2: 0.060

0.006

Beta

 

Year 3 + : 0.05

0.005

Beta

 

Death after KT

Year 1: 0.036

0.004

Beta

Canadian Organ Replacement Register

Year 2: 0.058

0.006

Beta

Year 3: 0.076

0.008

Beta

Year 4: 0.099

0.009

Beta

Years 5 + : 0.121

0.012

Beta

Probability

Mean

SD

Distribution in

PSA

Source

Pre-emptive KT

0.024

0.002

Beta

Estimateda

Hemodialysis

0.656

0.066

Beta

Estimateda

Peritoneal dialysis

0.125

0.013

Beta

Estimateda

Living donor KT

0.19

0.019

Beta

Estimateda

Reduced risk of death: pre-emptive KT

0.69

0.069

lognormal

Kabani et al.

Reduced risk of graft failure: pre-emptive KT

0.73

0.073

lognormal

Kabani et al.

  1. aAuthors’ estimate based on data from the Multi-Organ transplant program (MOTP)
  2. SD standard deviation, KT kidney transplantation, PSA probabilistic sensitivity analysis