Table 1 Model Parameters
Parameters | Base Estimate | Probability Distribution* | References |
|---|---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 1.5% | Fixed | [28] |
Willingness to Pay Value | $50,000 | Fixed | Â |
Relative Risk of Mortality- GOLD II | 1.44 | Log normal (1.135, 1.778) | [22] |
Relative Risk of Mortality- GOLD III | 2.04 | Log normal (1.495, 2.569) | [22] |
Relative Risk of Mortality- GOLD IV | 4.24 | Log normal (1.496, 3.921) | [22] |
Death Hazard Ratio (Hospitalization)- GOLD II | 1.5 | Log normal (1.260, 1.757) | [53] |
Death Hazard Ratio (Hospitalization)- GOLD III & GOLD IV | 2.7 | Log normal (2.066, 3.214) | [53] |
Utility values | |||
 EQ-5D- GOLD II- UC | 0.711 | Resample (min = 0.377, max = 0.922, median = 0.733) | [10] |
 EQ-5D- GOLD III- UC | 0.687 | Resample (min = 0.472, max = 0.959, median = 0.673) | [10] |
 EQ-5D- GOLD IV- UC | 0.708 | Resample (min = 0.544, max = 0.889, median = 0.726) | [10] |
 EQ-5D- GOLD II- IDM | 0.817 | Resample (min = 0.566, max = 0.978, median = 0.836) | [10] |
 EQ-5D- GOLD III – IDM | 0.798 | Resample (min = 0.548, max = 0.978, median = 0.759) | [10] |
 EQ-5D- GOLD IV- IDM | 0.720 | Resample (min = 0.540, max = 0.801, median = 0.771) | [10] |
 Death/ Dead- UC & IDM | 0 | Fixed |  |
Annual transition probabilities | |||
 Transition from GOLD II to GOLD III | 0.08 | Beta (7, 84) | [10] |
 Transition from GOLD III to GOLD IV | 0.05 | Beta (2, 39) | [10] |
Usual care- per annual cycle | |||
 Probability of Exacerbation- GOLD II | 0.86 | Beta (38, 6) | [10] |
 Probability of Exacerbation- GOLD III | 0.73 | Beta (16, 6) | [10] |
 Probability of Exacerbation- GOLD IV | 0.86 | Beta (6, 1) | [10] |
 Probability of Urgent Care Visit GOLD II | 0.89 | Beta (34, 4) | [10] |
 Probability of Urgent Care Visit GOLD III | 0.75 | Beta (12, 4) | [10] |
 Probability of Urgent Care Visit GOLD IV | 0.98 | Beta (6, 0.1) | [10] |
 Probability of ER Visit- GOLD II | 0.45 | Beta (17, 21) | [10] |
 Probability of ER Visit- GOLD III | 0.50 | Beta (8, 8) | [10] |
 Probability of ER Visit- GOLD IV | 0.50 | Beta (3, 3) | [10] |
 Probability of Hospitalization- GOLD II | 0.18 | Beta (7, 31) | [10] |
 Probability of Hospitalization- GOLD III | 0.25 | Beta (4, 12) | [10] |
 Probability of Hospitalization- GOLD IV | 0.33 | Beta (2, 4) | [10] |
 # of Urgent Care Visits- GOLD II | 2.684 | Log normal (2.074, 3.185) | [10] |
 # of Urgent Care Visits- GOLD III | 2.124 | Log normal (1.178, 2.964) | [10] |
 # of Urgent Care Visits- GOLD IV | 3.833 | Log normal (0.603, 2.628) | [10] |
 # of ER Visits- GOLD II | 0.474 | Log normal (0.326, 0.683) | [10] |
 # of ER Visits- GOLD III | 0.75 | Log normal (0.403, 1.322) | [10] |
 # of ER Visits- GOLD IV | 0.833 | Log normal (0.262, 2.112) | [10] |
 # of Hospitalizations- GOLD II | 0.263 | Log normal (0.123, 0.554) | [10] |
 # of Hospitalizations- GOLD III | 0.438 | Log normal (0.166, 1.095) | [10] |
 # of Hospitalizations- GOLD IV | 0.333 | Log normal (0.105, 1.016) | [10] |
IDM—per annual cycle | |||
 Probability of Exacerbation- GOLD II | 0.26 | Beta (12, 35) | [10] |
 Probability of Exacerbation- GOLD III | 0.47 | Beta (9, 10) | [10] |
 Probability of Exacerbation- GOLD IV | 0.50 | Beta (2, 2) | [10] |
 Probability of Urgent Care Visit GOLD II | 0.75 | Beta (9, 3) | [10] |
 Probability of Urgent Care Visit GOLD III | 0.44 | Beta (4, 5) | [10] |
 Probability of Urgent Care Visit GOLD IV | 0.95 | Beta (2, 0.1) | [10] |
 Probability of ER Visit- GOLD II | 0.42 | Beta (5, 7) | [10] |
 Probability of ER Visit- GOLD III | 0.11 | Beta (1, 8) | [10] |
 Probability of ER Visit- GOLD IV | 0.50 | Beta (1, 1) | [10] |
 Probability of Hospitalization- GOLD II | 0.17 | Beta (2, 10) | [10] |
 Probability of Hospitalization- GOLD III | 0.22 | Beta (2, 7) | [10] |
 Probability of Hospitalization- GOLD IV | 0.50 | Beta (1, 1) | [10] |
 # of Urgent Care Visits- GOLD II | 1.667 | Log normal (1.069, 2.324) | [10] |
 # of Urgent Care Visits- GOLD III | 0.667 | Log normal (0.250, 1.592) | [10] |
 # of Urgent Care Visits- GOLD IV | 1.5 | Log normal (0.701, 2.501) | [10] |
 # of ER Visits- GOLD II | 0.417 | Log normal (0.209, 0.812) | [10] |
 # of ER Visits- GOLD III | 0.222 | Log normal (0.042, 1.108) | [10] |
 # of ER Visits- GOLD IV | 0.5 | Log normal (0.086, 2.256) | [10] |
 # of Hospitalizations- GOLD II | 0.417 | Log normal (0.098, 1.577) | [10] |
 # of Hospitalizations- GOLD III | 0.222 | Log normal (0.068, 0.716) | [10] |
 # of Hospitalizations- GOLD IV | 0.5 | Log normal (0.086, 2.256) | [10] |
Health service costs per visit | |||
 Urgent care- outpatient Physician visits | $75.93 | Gamma (10,892.910, 0.00697) | [5] |
 Urgent care- laboratory & diagnostic tests | $19.62 | Gamma (107.360, 0.186) | [5] |
 Urgent care- transportation | $28.63 | Gamma (61.975, 0.462) | [5] |
 Urgent care- medication charges | $32.36 | Gamma (673.687, 0.048) | [5] |
 ER- ER visit | $313.38 | Fixed | [5] |
 ER- transportation | $299.98 | Gamma (40.930, 7.329) | [5] |
 ER- medication changes | $26.14 | Gamma (80.414, 0.325) | [5] |
 Hospitalization- hospital stay | $8,787.93 | Gamma (63.791, 137.760) | [5] |
 Hospitalization- laboratory & diagnostic tests | $1,845.86 | Gamma (309.379, 5.966) | [5] |
 Hospitalization- transportation | $155.59 | Gamma (24.237, 6.420) | [5] |
 Death | $0 | Fixed |  |
Annual treatment cost | |||
 Medical program director | $46.67 | Gamma (25, 1.867) | [10] |
 Program coordinator | $80.00 | Gamma (25, 3.2) | [10] |
 Certified respiratory educator | $216.00 | Gamma (25, 8.64) | [10] |
 Spirometry | $10.00 | Gamma (25, 0.4) | [10] |
 Computer | $2.40 | Gamma (25, 0.096) | [10] |
 Spirometry filters | $5.25 | Fixed | [10] |