Table 1 Base-case values and ranges for model inputs

Test performance

IgG test sensitivity

98.1%

89.9–99.7%

US FDA [26]

IgG test specificity

99.6%

99.2–99.8%

US FDA [26]

Ag test sensitivity in early clinical disease, days 1–7

90%

70–95%

Pollock [27]

Ag test sensitivity in early clinical disease (days 8–14), late clinical disease (days 15–39), asymptomatic

70%

50–90%

Pollock [27], Pilarowski [28]

Ag test specificity

99.6%

99.6–100%

Pollock [27], Pilarowski [28]

PCR test sensitivity, symptomatic

95%

67–100%

Shen [29], Tahamtan [30]

PCR test sensitivity, asymptomatic

70%

53–95%

Reddy [31], Yang [32], Wang [33]

PCR test specificity in early clinical disease, days 1–7

99%

60–100%

See Additional file 1: Appendix E for calculation

PCR test specificity in early clinical disease, days 8–14

11%

9–12%

PCR test specificity in late clinical disease

66%

50–100%

PCR test specificity when asymptomatic

62%

44–82%

Cost inputs

Cost of COVID-19 treatment

$3312

$1000–$12,000

Rae [34]

Cost of PCR testing

$51

$20–$120

CMS [35]

Cost of IgG testing

$42

$20–$120

CMS [35], Satyanarayana [36], Cairns [37]

Viral profiles

Likelihood of infectiousness in early clinical disease, days 1–7

89.3%

43.6–97.1%

Wölfel [22]

Likelihood of infectiousness in early clinical disease, days 8–14

7.9%

0.7–36.4%

Likelihood of infectiousness in late clinical disease

0.0%

0.0–0.8%

Antibody profiles

Likelihood of having no antibodies in early clinical disease, days 1–7

67.6%

61.7–69.9%

Zhao [38]

Likelihood of having no antibodies in early clinical disease, days 8–14

19.3%

10.4–22.3%

Likelihood of having no antibodies in late clinical disease

0.1%

0.0–1%

Epidemiologic inputs

Point prevalence of COVID-19 infection in the community

0.002

0.0005–0.008

California COVID-19 Dashboard [39]

Proportion of population recovered (or vaccinated)

0.47

0.43–0.70

California DPH [40]

Probability of asymptomatic infection

0.4

0.2–0.8

Nishiura [7]

Effective reproduction number with precautions

0.85

0.50–1.5

CMMID [41]

Immunity conferred

85%

50–100%

Hall [25]

QALYs lost due to one COVID-19 infection

0.078

0.05–0.21

Avalon Health Economics [42], Ioannidis [43], Mallapaty [44]