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Table 1 Model input parameters with uncertainty ranges in brackets

From: Cost-effectiveness of a reactive oral cholera immunization campaign using Shanchol™ in Malawi

 

Central

Uncertainty

Source of data

Assumptions

Parameters

value

range

Central value

Uncertainty ranges (min – max)

Economic data

 

 Vaccine purchase price per fully immunized, 2016 US$

3.7

Derived from the analysis

 Vaccine delivery cost per fully immunized, 2016 US$

3.6

[1.1–3.6]

Ilboudo et al. 2017 [14]

(Mogasale et al. 2016 [27]—Ilboudo et al. 2017 [14]

 Cost of cholera to patients and households, 2016 US$

65.6

[43.0–134.0]

Ilboudo et al. 2017 [15]

(Schaetti et al. 2012 [29]—Poulos et al. 2012 [28]

 Cost of cholera to health facilities, 2016 US$

59.7

[30.0–61.0]

Ilboudo et al. 2017 [15]

(Poulos et al. 2012 [28]—Schaetti et al. 2012 [29]

 GDP per capita, 2016 US$

372.0

World Bank 2017 [31]

 Discount rate (%)

3.0

[1.0–5.0]

WHO 2008 [30]

(Min and max from WHO, 2008 [30])

Epidemiological data

 

 Cholera incidence (Inc, cases per 1,000)

4.0

[3.0–5.0]

Sauvageot et al. 2017 [32]

(Min and max from Sauvageot et al. 2017 [32])

 Case fatality rate (CFR, %)

2.6

[1.4–6.7]

M’Bangombé, 2017 [33]

(Min and max from M’Bangombé, 2017 [33])

 Vaccine protective duration (Dur, years)

5.0

[3.0–5.0]

Bhattacharya et al. 2013 [9]

(Min and max from Bhattacharya et al. 2013 [9])

 Length of illness (Length, days)

5.0

[4.0–7.0]

Ilboudo et al. 2017 [15]

(Poulos et al. 2012 [28]—Schaetti et al. 2012 [29])

 DALY weight (DALY weight)

0.2

[0.1–0.3]

Salomon et al. 2012 [36]

(Min and max from Salomon et al. 2012 [36])

 Vaccine Efficacy (VEff, no indirect protection)

58.0

[42.0–69.0]

Bi et al. 2017 [35]

(Min and max from Bi et al. 2017 [35])

 Vaccine Efficacy (VEff, with indirect protection)

93.0

[82.0–99.0]

Longini et al. 2007 [24]

(Min and max from Longini et al. 2007 [24])

 Campaign coverage rate (%, without indirect protection)

58.0

[53.0–91.0]

MSF 2016 [4]

(Min and max from MSF, 2016 [34])

Demographic

 

 Population

90 000.0

 Life expectancy at infection (LExp, years)

58.0

[50.0–60.0]

WHO, 2016 [37]

(Min and Max from WHO, 2016 [37])