Using informative prior based on expert opinion in Bayesian estimation of the transition probability matrix in Markov modelling—an example from the cost-effectiveness analysis of the treatment of patients with predominantly negative symptoms of schizophrenia with cariprazine

Vokó, Zoltán; Bitter, István; Mersich, Beatrix; Réthelyi, János; Molnár, Anett; Pitter, János G.; Götze, Árpád; Horváth, Margit; Kóczián, Kristóf; Fonticoli, Laura; Lelli, Filippo; Németh, Bertalan

doi:10.1186/s12962-020-00224-w

Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation

Table 3 Posterior estimates of the weekly transition probabilities (%) estimated with the use of uninformative (normal text) and informative (bold text) prior probabilities and clinical trial data

From: Using informative prior based on expert opinion in Bayesian estimation of the transition probability matrix in Markov modelling—an example from the cost-effectiveness analysis of the treatment of patients with predominantly negative symptoms of schizophrenia with cariprazine

From [row] / to [col]	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Risperidone
1	94.11	1.80	1.60	0.68	0.55	0.47	0.51	0.28
1	70.98	4.15	4.16	4.10	4.16	4.14	4.18	4.13
2	3.35	80.72	0.12	9.13	5.78	0.85	0.03	0.03
2	3.39	80.43	0.10	9.13	5.83	0.93	0.11	0.10
3	1.33	6.60	80.97	5.23	2.09	1.31	1.76	0.71
3	4.13	4.16	70.92	4.18	4.10	4.19	4.20	4.12
4	0.01	22.07	0.57	74.24	0.85	2.23	0.01	0.01
4	0.03	22.07	0.59	74.13	0.86	2.24	0.03	0.03
5	0.03	15.83	0.09	3.61	74.71	5.56	0.11	0.05
5	0.21	16.01	2.14	3.74	73.89	5.49	0.22	0.22
6	0.01	2.88	0.01	8.90	12.08	76.09	0.02	0.01
6	0.04	2.89	0.04	8.92	12.07	75.97	0.04	0.04
7	1.49	2.37	4.98	3.46	23.01	13.25	45.98	5.46
7	12.41	12.51	12.51	12.55	12.51	12.71	12.45	12.34
8	2.22	2.51	4.51	7.04	9.62	20.56	7.41	46.15
8	12.44	12.44	12.49	12.46	12.64	12.52	12.42	12.59
Cariprazine
1	95.55	1.40	1.23	0.51	0.39	0.34	0.36	0.22
1	77.95	3.15	3.13	3.12	3.18	3.20	3.11	3.16
2	6.05	86.77	0.12	5.23	1.74	0.03	0.03	0.03
2	6.09	86.42	0.11	5.24	1.83	0.11	0.11	0.11
3	1.98	59.77	21.44	8.02	3.08	1.92	2.69	1.12
3	6.30	56.3	6.29	6.26	6.26	6.09	6.29	6.27
4	0.01	19.86	0.28	75.28	0.55	3.99	0.01	0.01
4	0.03	19.87	0.30	75.16	0.56	4.01	0.03	0.03
5	0.04	22.52	0.11	0.10	70.55	6.48	0.13	0.06
5	0.25	22.69	0.25	0.25	69.65	6.38	0.26	0.25
6	0.01	3.51	0.02	11.97	10.55	73.92	0.02	0.01
6	0.04	3.59	0.04	12.00	10.54	73.78	0.04	0.04
7	1.58	2.45	4.83	3.50	23.12	13.31	45.80	5.41
7	12.53	12.56	12.47	12.44	12.42	12.49	12.45	12.64
8	2.37	2.48	4.47	7.18	9.60	20.59	7.42	45.90
8	12.42	12.31	12.67	12.52	12.39	12.56	12.56	12.56

Source: partially from the appendix of Németh et al. 2017 [9]

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