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Table 3 Posterior estimates of the weekly transition probabilities (%) estimated with the use of uninformative (normal text) and informative (bold text) prior probabilities and clinical trial data

From: Using informative prior based on expert opinion in Bayesian estimation of the transition probability matrix in Markov modelling—an example from the cost-effectiveness analysis of the treatment of patients with predominantly negative symptoms of schizophrenia with cariprazine

From [row] / to [col] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Risperidone
 1 94.11 1.80 1.60 0.68 0.55 0.47 0.51 0.28
70.98 4.15 4.16 4.10 4.16 4.14 4.18 4.13
 2 3.35 80.72 0.12 9.13 5.78 0.85 0.03 0.03
3.39 80.43 0.10 9.13 5.83 0.93 0.11 0.10
 3 1.33 6.60 80.97 5.23 2.09 1.31 1.76 0.71
4.13 4.16 70.92 4.18 4.10 4.19 4.20 4.12
 4 0.01 22.07 0.57 74.24 0.85 2.23 0.01 0.01
0.03 22.07 0.59 74.13 0.86 2.24 0.03 0.03
 5 0.03 15.83 0.09 3.61 74.71 5.56 0.11 0.05
0.21 16.01 2.14 3.74 73.89 5.49 0.22 0.22
 6 0.01 2.88 0.01 8.90 12.08 76.09 0.02 0.01
0.04 2.89 0.04 8.92 12.07 75.97 0.04 0.04
 7 1.49 2.37 4.98 3.46 23.01 13.25 45.98 5.46
12.41 12.51 12.51 12.55 12.51 12.71 12.45 12.34
 8 2.22 2.51 4.51 7.04 9.62 20.56 7.41 46.15
12.44 12.44 12.49 12.46 12.64 12.52 12.42 12.59
Cariprazine
 1 95.55 1.40 1.23 0.51 0.39 0.34 0.36 0.22
77.95 3.15 3.13 3.12 3.18 3.20 3.11 3.16
 2 6.05 86.77 0.12 5.23 1.74 0.03 0.03 0.03
6.09 86.42 0.11 5.24 1.83 0.11 0.11 0.11
 3 1.98 59.77 21.44 8.02 3.08 1.92 2.69 1.12
6.30 56.3 6.29 6.26 6.26 6.09 6.29 6.27
 4 0.01 19.86 0.28 75.28 0.55 3.99 0.01 0.01
0.03 19.87 0.30 75.16 0.56 4.01 0.03 0.03
 5 0.04 22.52 0.11 0.10 70.55 6.48 0.13 0.06
0.25 22.69 0.25 0.25 69.65 6.38 0.26 0.25
 6 0.01 3.51 0.02 11.97 10.55 73.92 0.02 0.01
0.04 3.59 0.04 12.00 10.54 73.78 0.04 0.04
 7 1.58 2.45 4.83 3.50 23.12 13.31 45.80 5.41
12.53 12.56 12.47 12.44 12.42 12.49 12.45 12.64
 8 2.37 2.48 4.47 7.18 9.60 20.59 7.42 45.90
12.42 12.31 12.67 12.52 12.39 12.56 12.56 12.56
  1. Source: partially from the appendix of Németh et al. 2017 [9]
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