Table 3 Model parameters used in the base case analysis and distributions used for the sensitivity analysis

Utilities

 Remission (R)

0.94

Beta (89, 6)

[42, 43]

 Local recurrence (LR)

0.82

Beta (77, 23)

[16]

 Distant recurrence (DR)

0.58

Beta (171, 79)

[16]

Transition probabilities

 R > LR

0.029

Beta (27, 983)

[26]

 R > DR

0.087

Beta (102, 1061)

[15, 16]

 LR > R

0.1

Beta (111, 899)

[16]

 LR > DR

0.261

Beta (119, 931)

[16]

 DR > BCD

0.325

Beta (15, 20)

[16]

 R, DR, LR > D

All-cause mortality

Age-specific mortality

[32]

 Hazard ratio years 1–5

0.59

Log-Normal (− 0.527, 0.089)

[16, 44]