Table 7 Univariate sensitivity analysis: when the rate of analytic failure of NIPT varies from 0 to 12%
Testing strategy | 1st and 2nd trimester screening (current screening) | NIPT as contingent testing | NIPT as first-line testing | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Failure rate of 0% | Failure rate of 12% | Failure rate of 0% | Failure rate of 12% | ||
Effectiveness | |||||
No of women undergoing 1st and 2nd trimester screening tests | 66,799 | 66,799 | 66,799 | 0 | 8016 |
No of women undergoing NIPT | 0 | 3152 | 3152 | 66,799 | 66,799 |
No of NIPT with a positive result | 0 | 256 | 225 | 286 | 252 |
No of ITa | 3275 | 523 | 853 | 648 | 964 |
No of procedure-related miscarriages | 23 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
No of T21 cases detected | 271 | 269 | 269 | 297 | 294 |
Costs | |||||
1st and 2nd trimester screening tests | €5,292,716 | €5,292,716 | €5,292,716 | 0€ | €609,216 |
NIPT | €0 | €1,733,600 | €1,940,400 | 38,608,900€ | €43,126,050 |
IT | €3,093,565 | €494,026 | €805,744 | 612,101€ | €910,594 |
Hospitalisation due to amniotic fluid leakage and pregnancy termination owing to T21 | €515,591 | €467,785 | €474,093 | 520,214€ | €519,470 |
Total costs | €8,901,872 | €7,988,127 | €8,512,953 | 39,741,215€ | €45,165,330 |
Economic analysis | NIPT as first-line testing vs 1st and 2nd trimester screening | NIPT as contingent testing vs 1st and 2nd trimester screening | NIPT as first-line testing vs NIPT as contingent testing | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Failure rate of 0% | Failure rate of 12% | Failure rate of 0% | Failure rate of 12% | Failure rate of 0% | Failure rate of 12% | |
Incremental cost | €30,839,343 | 36,263,458 | €-913,745 | €-388,919 | €31,753,688 | €36,652,378 |
Incremental effectiveness (T21 extra cases detected) | 26 | 23 | − 2 | − 2 | 28 | 25 |
ICER (€/T21 extra case detected) | 1,186,129 | 1,576,672 | – | – | 1,134,039 | 1,466,095 |