Table 1 Values, ranges, distributions and references for parameters used in the decision tree

Incidence of preterm birth (%)

0.05–0.15

–

[8, 10, 13, 24, 25]

Diagnostic performances

 CL < 25 mm sensitivity

0.68–0.87

beta

[14]

 CL < 25 mm specificity

0.67–0.74

beta

[14]

 CL < 15 mm sensitivity

0.53–0.67

beta

[14]

 CL < 15 mm specificity

0.89–0.92

beta

[14]

 Qualitative fFN sensitivity

0.66–0.83

beta

[8, 20]

 Qualitative fFN specificity

0.73–0.79

beta

[8, 20]

 Quantitative fFN sensitivity

0.36–0.95

beta

[24]

 Quantitative fFN specificity

0.91–0.97

beta

[24]

 Cervical IL-6 sensitivity

0.53–1

beta

[10]

 Cervical IL-6 specificity

0.89–0.99

beta

[10]

 Combination CL < 18 mm, plasma RANTES, plasma IL-10 sensitivity

0.63–0.85

beta

[25]

beta

 Combination CL < 18 mm, plasma RANTES, plasma IL-10 specificity

0.79–0.93

beta

[25]

beta

 CL < 15 mm or CL 16–30 mm and qualitative fFN sensitivity

0.83–0.95

beta

[13]

 CL < 15 mm or CL 16–30 mm and qualitative fFN specificity

0.67–0.73

beta

[13]

Probability of perinatal death

 If preterm birth [24–27] GA

0.35–0.44

beta

[29]

 If preterm birth [28–31] GA

0.05–0.10

beta

[29]

 If preterm birth [32–34] GA

0.009–0.057

beta

[29]

 If preterm birth [24–34] GA

0.09–0.13

–

[29]

Probability of severe neonatal morbidity

[29]

 If preterm birth [24–27] GA

0.25–0.36

beta

[29]

 If preterm birth [28–31] GA

0.059–0.11

beta

[29]

 If preterm birth [32–34] GA

0–0.034

beta

[29]

 If preterm birth [24–34] GA

0.054–0.086

–

[29]

Probability of subsequent hospitalization

 If preterm birth [24–27] GA

–

–

PMSI

 If preterm birth [28–31] GA

–

–

PMSI

 If preterm birth [32–34] GA

–

–

PMSI

Probability of home follow-up

 If preterm birth [24–27] GA

–

–

PMSI

 If preterm birth [28–31] GA

–

–

PMSI

 If preterm birth [32–34] GA

–

–

PMSI