| Base-case value | Range | PSA distribution | PSA parameters | Source |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Perinatal infection to | |||||
 Immune tolerance/inactive state | 89 | 80–90 | Beta | α = 172.55; β = 30.45 | |
Immune tolerance/Inactive state to | |||||
 Chronic hepatitis (years) |  |  |  |  |  |
  < 25 | 0.43 | 0.3–0.65 | Beta | α = 29.32; β = 6144.29 | [19] |
  ≥ 25 | 3 | 2.9–7.3 | Beta | α = 20.35; β = 378.64 | [19] |
 Chronic hepatitis to |  |  |  |  |  |
 Immune tolerance/inactive state (years) |  |  |  |  |  |
  < 25 | 9 | 0–16.3 | Beta | α = 3.59; β = 40.49 | [19] |
  ≥ 25 | 10 | 8.3–16.3 | Beta | α = 33.05; β = 235.63 | [19] |
 Compensated cirrhosis (years) |  |  |  |  |  |
  < 25 | 0.065 | 0.01–0.12 | Beta | α = 5.58; β = 8582.87 | [19] |
  ≥ 25 | 1.5 | 1–5.7 | Beta | α = 7.82; β = 225.69 | [19] |
  HCC | 0.5 | 0.2–1 | Beta | α = 8.94; β = 1481.06 | |
  Disease-related death | 0.9 | 0.3–3.6 | Beta | α = 5.46; β = 274.46 | |
 Compensated cirrhosis to | |||||
  Decompensated cirrhosis | 5.4 | 2.8–15 | Beta | α = 7.67; β = 78.49 | |
  HCC | 3.3 | 0.5–6.6 | Beta | α = 5.19; β = 141.04 | |
  Disease-related death | 3.5 | 0–8 | Beta | α = 3.8; β = 91.2 | |
 Decompensated cirrhosis to | |||||
  HCC | 7.1 | 0.15–10 | Beta | α = 3.98; β = 74.46 | |
  Disease-related death | 15 | 9.9–50 | Dirichlet | List (20;75;5) | |
 HCC to | |||||
  Disease-related death | 54 | 8.1–70 | Dirichlet | List (20;75;5) |