Table 4 Sensitivity analysis base, low and high estimates and results
Cumulative present value in scenario analysis (societal perspective) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario | Description | Cost of PPMAa | Cost of alternative | Net cost–saving | ROI | % Change ROIb |
Base | Base scenario | $3,680,584 | $7,163,244 | $3,482,660 | 2.53 | – |
Scenario 1 | Average cost per prescription for minor ailment (high)-$43.64 | $4,528,280 | $7,485,368 | $2,957,088 | 2.15 | −15.02% |
Scenario 2 | Average cost per prescription for minor ailment (low)-$21.22 | $3,127,044 | $6,952,899 | $3,825,854 | 2.78 | 9.88% |
Scenario 3 | Average cost of OTCs (high)-$15 | $3,680,584 | $7,242,804 | $3,562,219 | 2.59 | 2.37% |
Scenario 4 | Average cost of OTCs (low)-$12 | $3,680,584 | $7,110,204 | $3,429,620 | 2.49 | −1.58% |
Scenario 5 | Wait time and duration of a GP consultation—low (1.25) | $3,680,584 | $6,893,198 | $3,213,267 | 2.34 | −7.51% |
Scenario 6 | Wait time and duration of a GP consultation—high (2.25) | $3,680,584 | $7,423,637 | $3,752,052 | 2.73 | 7.91% |
Scenario 7 | Wait time at Pharmacy (5 min) | $3,757,553 | $7,163,244 | $4,780,844 | 2.48 | −1.98% |
Scenario 8 | GP and ER prescribe medication in 90% of cases | $3,680,584 | $7,092,478 | $3,411,893 | 2.48 | −1.98% |
Best | Low Ave cost per prescription/high Ave cost of OTC/high wait time and duration of GP consultation | $3,127,044 | $7,301,851 | $4,174,807 | 3.04 | 20.16% |
Worst | High Ave cost per prescription/low Ave cost of OTC/low wait time and duration of GP consultation/High wait time at pharmacy/GP and ER prescribe medication in 90% of cases | $4,605,249 | $7,059,958 | $2,454,708 | 1.79 | −29.25% |