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Table 2 Model input parameter values

From: What are we paying for? A cost-effectiveness analysis of patented denosumab and generic alendronate for postmenopausal osteoporotic women in Australia

Parameters

Mean

Lower 95 % CI

Upper 95 % CI

Distribution

Source

Annual non-persistence probability

Denosumab

0.098

0.05

0.15

Log normal

[7]

Alendronate

0.202

0.14

0.28

Mortality relative risk (in 1st year after a fracture)

Hip fracture

2.43

2.02

2.93

Log normal

[17]

Non-Hip fracture

1.65

1.52

2.17

Annual costs

Denosumab (2 × 60 mg/mL)

$541.64

   

PBS

Administration

$24.0

   

MBS

Alendronate (52 × 70 mg)

$199.16

   

PBS

Annual follow-up

$148.5

   

MBS

Hip fracture, year 1

$30,720

$24,576

$36,864

Log normal

[2]

Hip fracture, year 2+

$3280

$2624

$3936

Non-hip fracture, year 1

$6593

$5274

$7912

Non-hip fracture, year 2+

$253

$202

$303

Utility values (no fracture)

Mean population value (age 70–80 years)

0.8

0.78

0.82

Beta

[21]

Utility multipliers

Hip fracture, year 1

0.70

0.64

0.77

Beta

[5, 22]

Hip fracture, year 2+

0.80

0.68

0.96

Non-hip fracture, year 1

0.84

0.75

0.92

Non-hip fracture, year 2+

0.96

0.95

0.97

Fracture risk equations parameters

a [Constant coefficient for hip fractures]

0.0005

0.0003

0.0007

Probability weights assigned (based on χ2 statistic)

[10], final values fitted via model calibration [13]

b [Prev. fracture coefficient for hip fractures]

1.4979

1.2659

1.7379

c [Year coefficient for hip fractures]

0.0699

0.0367

0.1031

d [(-BMD−1.98) coefficient for hip fractures]

0.0267

0.0159

0.0367

e [Exponent of (-BMD−1.98) for hip fractures]

1.5042

1.2651

1.7331

f [Constant coefficient for non-hip fractures]

0.0043

0.0022

0.0069

g [Prev. fracture coefficient for non-hip fractures]

1.4981

1.2631

1.7374

h [Year coefficient for non-hip fractures]

0.0698

0.0369

0.1033

i [(-BMD−1.98) coefficient for non-hip fractures]

0.1997

0.1377

0.2704

j [Exponent of (-BMD−1.98) for non-hip fractures]

1.4218

1.2146

1.5913

  1. PBS pharmaceutical benefits schedule, MBS medicare benefits schedule (drug administration assumed to require one practice nurse visit—item 10997, annual follow-up requires one GP visit—item 36, and bone densitometry procedure—item 12306)