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Table 2 Types and parameter estimates of the distributions of the patient characteristics in the prevalent population on January 1, 1996 and in each yearly incident cohort

From: Impact on total population health and societal cost, and the implication on the actual cost-effectiveness of including tumour necrosis factor-α antagonists in management of ankylosing spondylitis: a dynamic population modelling study

Characteristics

Distributiona

 

Prevalent population (PP)

Estimated size: 62,000 patients

Yearly incident cohort

Estimated size: 1000–1200 patients

Age of male

N (42.5, 12.6)

N (33.7, 8.14)

Age of female

N (46.3, 12.7)

N (33.7, 8.14)

Gender (male)

Bern (0.69)

Same as PP

Symptom duration

N (0.64 × Age − 7.76, 1.20 × \(\sqrt {Age}\))b

Same as PP

Diagnosis duration

N (3.1, 1.3)c

0

Proportion of patients with paid jobs

Bern (0.75)

Same as PP

Proportion of paid-job patients being work disabled

Bern (0.20)

Same as PP

Contraindication to anti-TNF agents

Bern (0.20)

Same as PP

BASDAI

N (1.72, 0.63)c

N (1.91, 0.52)c

BASFI of male patient

N (0.69 × BASDAI + 1.89, 1.69)d

N (0.60 × BASDAI + 2.62, 1.42)d

BASFI of female patient

N (0.92 × BASDAI + 0.19, 1.00)d

N (0.91 × BASDAI + 0.27, 0.81)d

  1. BASDAI Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index, BASFI Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index
  2. aN (m, s): Normal distribution with mean m and standard deviation s; Bern (p): Bernoulli distribution with probability of true value being p
  3. bDistribution conditional on age; parameters estimated by fitting a linear model using generalized least squares with fixed variance weights
  4. cDistribution of square root of the respective characteristics
  5. dDistribution conditional on BASDAI