Table 1 Sensitivity analysis by input for each model
From: New all oral therapy for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV): a novel long-term cost comparison
Variable | Baseline scenario | Input range | Output range (baseline: 1257) | Input range References/comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Model 1 | ||||
 % Age in years |  | 100 % 18–34 years–100 % 45–54 years | 838–1971 | Theoretical range |
 % Male | 50 % | 0–100 % | 1157–1357 | Theoretical range |
 % Region |  | 100 % Midwest–100 % South | 1166–1413 | Theoretical range |
Variable | Baseline scenario (%) | Input range (%) | Output range (baseline: 649) | Input range References/comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Model 2 | ||||
 Proportion diagnosis aware, not yet treated | 30 | 20–40 | 639–659 | |
 Cure rate genotype 1 SOC | 71 | 66–75 | 652–646 | Cure rates for boceprevir and telaprevir [14] |
 Cure rate genotype 2/3 SOC | 81 | 76–86 | 650–648 | 5 % on either side of baseline scenario |
Variable | Baseline scenario | Input range | Output range (baseline: $3142.26) | Input range References/comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Model 3 | ||||
 Standard of Care | ||||
  SOC genotype 1 cure rate in naïve (ribavirin + interferon + PI) | 71 % | 66–75 % | $3635.87–$2775.43 | Cure rates for boceprevir and telaprevir [14] |
  SOC genotype 1 length of therapy (ribavirin + interferon + PI) | 48 weeks | 24 weeks | $732.86 | [41] |
  SOC genotype 1 proportion using Pegasys | 50 % | 0–100 % | $2220.11–$4064.20 | Theoretical range |
  SOC genotype 1 proportion using boceprevir | 50 % | 0–100 % | $2755.10–$3656.21 | Theoretical range |
  SOC genotype 1 proportion using telaprevir | 50 % | 0–100 % | $3656.21–$2755.10 | Theoretical range |
  SOC genotype 2/3 cure rate (ribavirin + interferon) | 81 % | 76–86 % | $3315.43–$2959.13 | 5 % on either side of baseline scenario |
  SOC genotype 2/3 length of therapy (ribavirin + interferon) | 24 weeks | 12–48 weeks | $2880.16–$3666.15 | [48] |
  SOC genotype 2/3 proportion using Pegasys | 50 % | 0–100 % | $2971.95–$3312.37 | Theoretical range |
 All Oral | ||||
  Proposed all oral genotype 1 cure rate in naiive (sofosbuvir + ledipasvir) | 97 % | 95.4–97.7 % | $2979.75–$3203.16 | [44] |
  Proposed all oral genotype 1 length of therapy (sofosbuvir + ledipasvir) | 12 weeks | 8–24 weeks | $4620.24–($1292.14) | [44] |
  Proposed all oral genotype 1 treatment cost (sofosbuvir + ledipasvir) | 85,000 | 106,250–127,500 | $2033.58–$925.01 | [35] |
  All oral genotype 2 cure rate in naiive (sofosbuvir + ribavirin) | 95 % | 90–100 % | $3001.47–$3224.89 | 5 % on either side of baseline scenario |
  All oral genotype 2 length of therapy (sofosbuvir + ribavirin) | 12 weeks | 16 weeks | $2798.80 | [45] |
  All oral genotype 3 cure rate in naiive (sofosbuvir + ribavirin) | 93 % | 88–98 % | $3062.48–$3214.03 | 5 % on either side of baseline scenario |
  All oral genotype 3 length of therapy (sofosbuvir + ribavirin) | 24 weeks | N/A | N/A | N/A |