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Table 1 Parameters applied in the HPV transmission model

From: Revisiting the cost-effectiveness of universal HPV-vaccination in Denmark accounting for all potentially vaccine preventable HPV-related diseases in males and females

Variable Value Source
Age groups included 10-78 years, present Danish age distribution Age distribution: Statistics Denmark
Gender Man/woman Fixed at 50%
Concurrent partners 0, 1 or 2, uniform/block distribution Estimate.
Duration of relationship (in months) Based on estimate, dependent of age, that is the older the longer duration (Y = abs random-normal (0.8·age – 12) (age/0.5)·12). Estimate
Frequency of sexual intercourse Random-gamma distribution with a mean of 9.48 per month; SD 9.95 Burchell et al. [30]
Vaccination status 0 or 1  
HPV-specific:   
Duration of HPV 6 infection (in months) Exponential distribution with a mean of 11 months The estimate is set in order to calibrate the model before introduction of a vaccine
Duration of HPV 11 infection (in months) Exponential distribution with a mean of 9.5 months
Duration of HPV 16 infection (in months) Exponential distribution with a mean of 13 months
Duration of HPV 18 infection (in months) Exponential distribution with a mean of 11 months
HPV → CIN1 0.0049 per month (probability)
CIN1 → HPV/clear (regress) 0.329 per year (probability) Elbasha et al. [17]
CIN1 → CIN2 0.46 per year (probability) The estimate is set in order to calibrate the model before introduction of a vaccine
CIN2 → CIN1 (regress) 0.1 per year (probability)
CIN2 → CIN3 0.60 per year (probability)
CIN3 → CIN2 (regress) 0.02 per year (probability)
CIN3 → cervical cancer 0.37 per year (probability)
HPV 6/11 → genital warts 0.30 per year (probability)
Risk of infection   
−for HPV 6/11/16 per intercourse 0.3 Elbasha et al. [17]
−for HPV 18 per intercourse 0.13 Modified compared to the HPV 16 risk to take into account a lower HPV 18 prevalence
Vaccine efficacy 100%