Table 1 Parameters applied in the HPV transmission model
Variable | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
Age groups included | 10-78 years, present Danish age distribution | Age distribution: Statistics Denmark |
Gender | Man/woman | Fixed at 50% |
Concurrent partners | 0, 1 or 2, uniform/block distribution | Estimate. |
Duration of relationship (in months) | Based on estimate, dependent of age, that is the older the longer duration (Y = abs random-normal (0.8·age – 12) (age/0.5)·12). | Estimate |
Frequency of sexual intercourse | Random-gamma distribution with a mean of 9.48 per month; SD 9.95 | Burchell et al. [30] |
Vaccination status | 0 or 1 | |
HPV-specific: | ||
Duration of HPV 6 infection (in months) | Exponential distribution with a mean of 11 months | The estimate is set in order to calibrate the model before introduction of a vaccine |
Duration of HPV 11 infection (in months) | Exponential distribution with a mean of 9.5 months | |
Duration of HPV 16 infection (in months) | Exponential distribution with a mean of 13 months | |
Duration of HPV 18 infection (in months) | Exponential distribution with a mean of 11 months | |
HPV → CIN1 | 0.0049 per month (probability) | |
CIN1 → HPV/clear (regress) | 0.329 per year (probability) | Elbasha et al. [17] |
CIN1 → CIN2 | 0.46 per year (probability) | The estimate is set in order to calibrate the model before introduction of a vaccine |
CIN2 → CIN1 (regress) | 0.1 per year (probability) | |
CIN2 → CIN3 | 0.60 per year (probability) | |
CIN3 → CIN2 (regress) | 0.02 per year (probability) | |
CIN3 → cervical cancer | 0.37 per year (probability) | |
HPV 6/11 → genital warts | 0.30 per year (probability) | |
Risk of infection | ||
−for HPV 6/11/16 per intercourse | 0.3 | Elbasha et al. [17] |
−for HPV 18 per intercourse | 0.13 | Modified compared to the HPV 16 risk to take into account a lower HPV 18 prevalence |
Vaccine efficacy | 100% |