Table 8 Base Model Estimate and Sensitivity Analysis of the Effects of Key Model Assumption on the Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio
Changes of Assumptions in the Model | Cost per QALY |
|---|---|
Base estimate | $88,829 |
This model assumes that 19% of patients who fail the LPV/r with ANY resistance and the 30% who fail EFV with ANY resistance will have Etravirine added to Darunavir as their 3rd regimen | $98,581 |
As above but using darunavir blended price* of $43.85 per day in 3rd regimen | $98,210 |
Base model but using the utility values from the published Simpson model | $95,432 |
This model assumes that the 1% of patients who fail the LPV/r with 2 class resistance and the 26% who fail EFV with 2 class resistance will have Etravirine added to Darunavir as their 3rd regimen | $53,095 |
This model assumes that 6% of patients fail the LPV/r with NRTI resistance and 9% fail EFV with NRTI resistance, and that these patients will have Etravirine added to Darunavir as their 3rd regimen | $116,797 |
This model assumes that there is no effect of choice of first regimen on the cost of the 3rd treatment due to resistance | $116,774 |
Change AIDS event cost +20% or -20% | $99,238 and 97,924 |
Change heart disease cost +20% or -20% | $98,583 and $98,579 |
Change Lipoatrophy cost +20% or - 20% | $98,108 and $99,054 |
No cost of treating lipoatrophy | $91,226 |
Lipoatrophy rates 6% and 12% as observed in the TDF sub-groups | $171,187 |
Change Lipoatrophy QALY to "+50% and -50%" (from -.052 in base model to -.026 or -.078) | $175,538 and $68,535 |