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Table 1 Assumptions, distributions and sources of model parameters

From: Cost effectiveness of community-based therapeutic care for children with severe acute malnutrition in Zambia: decision tree model

Parameter

Mean

Standard error*

Source and comments

Outcomes

   

Do nothing option

   

Mortality without CTC (HIV-)

0.18

0.045

[14] SE assumed.

Relative risk of death with HIV, no CTC

2.0

0.5

[18] SE assumed

Prevalence of HIV in under fives

0.15

0.0375

[16, 17] SE assumed.

CTC option

   

Death rate during CTC

0.026

0.0032

Programme data.

Proportion defaulting from CTC

0.172

0.0075

Programme data.

Death rate in defaulters from CTC

0.058

0.029

Assumed. SE set so 95% CI is +/- 100% of mean

Hospital referral rate from CTC

0.059

0.0047

Programme data.

Death rate in hospital

0.37

0.093

UTH data. SE assumed

Mortality within a year of recovery

0.0364

0.0091

[19]

Expected DALYs if child recovers

33.3

NA

[5]

Costs (CTC option only)

   

No. weeks of CTC – recovered

6.6

1.6

Programme data.

No. weeks of CTC – referred

4.8

1.1

Programme data.

No. weeks of CTC – died

3.6

1.6

Programme data.

No. weeks of CTC – defaulted

5.1

1.5

Programme data.

Cost per health centre visit

$4.24

$1.06

LDMHT. SE assumed.

Cost per kg of RUTF

$6.10

$1.53

Valid International. SE assumed.

Kg of RUTF per week per child

1.90

0.016

Programme data.

Cost of community mobilisation per child

$1.06

$0.27

LDMHT. SE assumed

Valid cost per child

$68.69

$17.17

Valid International. SE assumed.

Cost per day in hospital

$41.35

$10.34

[24] SE assumed.

Days in hospital

14

3.5

UTH data. SE assumed.

  1. * SE standard errors for probabilistic sensitivity analysis; normal distributions assumed.
  2. CI confidence interval. $ international dollars, year 2008. NA not applicable. UTH Lusaka University Teaching Hospital