Table 5 One-way sensitivity analyses comparing cervical cancer screening only and cervical cancer screening associated with a quadrivalent HPV vaccination programme

Base case

21,059

34,687

Vaccine duration

10 years

68,417

116,743

10 years + booster to achieve lifetime protection

26,782

44,114

20 years

30,777

52,578

Multiple infections

15%

24,085

39,842

Vaccine efficacy

85%

25,081

40,831

Vaccine coverage

50%

21,581

34,426

Screening coverage rate

-50%

16,266.

35,476

-10%

19,926

34,681

Screening, diagnosis and treatment costs

-20%

21,717

35,771

+20%

20,401

33,602

Vaccine costs

70 £

19,450

32,036

80 £

22,668

37,337

Utilities

25% decrease for screening utilities; 1-year duration for time with cancer

25,600

25% increase in time with disease; 5-year duration for time with cancer

19,840

Cancer utilities only (5 year duration)

27,954

Discount rates

0% costs; 0% medical benefit

3,123

4,122

3% costs; 3% medical benefit

17,089

27,066

3,5% costs; 1,5% medical benefit

9,653

13,797

5% costs; 5% medical benefit

36,618

68,760

Multivariate Sensitivity Analyses

10 years duration, 50% coverage, 85% efficacy

84,925

140,705

Lifetime duration, 90% coverage, 100% efficacy

20,316

33,752

Changes to Screening (assuming base case assumptions for the vaccine)

Screening every 5 years starting at age 25

13,449

36,712

Screening starting at age 26

20,724

34,441

Screening starting at age 28

16,527

34,153

Screening starting at age 30

13,680

34,989