The Quit Benefits Model: a Markov model for assessing the health benefits and health care cost savings of quitting smoking

Table 10 Predicted outcomes for a male aged between 50–54 years after 10 years follow-up.*

Outcome	Smoker	Quitter	Difference
Life-years	9.5	9.6	0.1
QALYs	9.3	9.5	0.2
Health care costs ^† avoided
AMI costs	$783	$340	$443
COPD costs	$875	$706	$169
Lung Ca costs	$861	$617	$244
Stroke costs	$837	$498	$339
Total costs	$3,355	$2,160	$1,195
Cumulative probability of disease
AMI	0.058	0.024	0.034
COPD	0.089	0.065	0.025
Lung Ca	0.025	0.016	0.009
Stroke	0.037	0.021	0.015
Any of the above 4 diseases	0.209	0.126	0.083
Cumulative probability of death
AMI	0.017	0.006	0.011
COPD	0.006	0.004	0.002
Lung Ca	0.016	0.011	0.005
Stroke	0.017	0.010	0.007
Any of the above 4 diseases	0.057	0.031	0.026
Causes other than the above	0.058	0.044	0.014
Total deaths	0.115	0.075	0.04

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