Table 1 Model parameters for 50–54 year olds for estimation of cases of disease, deaths, and life-years
Parameter | Males | Females | |
|---|---|---|---|
Definition | Name | Â | Â |
DISEASE-SPECIFIC | Â | Â | Â |
AMI | Â | Â | Â |
   Pr(AMI in next year for a smoker) | pAMI | 0.0043 | 0.0012 |
   Pr(AMI in next year for a quitter)* | pAMI | 0.0015 | 0.0004 |
   Pr(Die from an AMI before hospitalisation|have first AMI) | pDA1_1 | 0.1943 | 0.1744 |
   Pr(Die in hospital from first AMI in first 28 days|have first AMI and hospitalised) | pDA1_2 | 0.0347 | 0.0335 |
   Pr(Die from AMI in remainder of first year|discharged from hospital) | pDA1_3 | 0.0235 | 0.0149 |
   Pr(Die from AMI in second year|survive first year) | pDA2 | 0.0235 | 0.0149 |
Stroke | Â | Â | Â |
   Pr(Stroke in next year for a smoker) | pStroke | 0.0026 | 0.0016 |
   Pr(Stroke in next year for a quitter)* | pStroke | 0.0014 | 0.0008 |
   Pr(Die from a stroke in first 30 days|have first stroke) | pDS1_1 | 0.2250 | 0.2250 |
   Pr(Die from stroke in first year|survive first 30 days) | pDS1_2 | 0.1818 | 0.1818 |
   Pr(Die from stroke in second year|survive first year)†| pDS2 | 0.0833 | 0.0833 |
Lung cancer | Â | Â | Â |
   Pr(Lung cancer in next year for a smoker) | pLCa | 0.0016 | 0.0011 |
   Pr(Lung cancer in next year for a quitter) | pLCa | 0.6998 | 0.0006 |
   Pr(Die from lung cancer in first year|have lung cancer | pDL1 | 0.5930 | 0.5099 |
   Pr(Die from lung cancer in second year|survive first year)†| pDL2 | 0.4069 | 0.3602 |
COPD | Â | Â | Â |
   Pr(COPD in next year for a smoker) | pCOPD | 0.0075 | 0.0062 |
   Pr(COPD in next year for a quitter) | pCOPD | 0.0052 | 0.0035 |
   Pr(Die from COPD in year|have COPD) | pDC | 0.0081 | 0.0060 |
MORTALITY FROM OTHER CAUSES | Â | Â | Â |
   Pr(Die from other causes in next year for a smoker) | pDie_other | 0.0040 | 0.0029 |
   Pr(Die from other causes in next year for a quitter) | pDie_other | 0.0026 | 0.0024 |