Input parameters | Data sources | Transition probability (range) |
---|---|---|
CD4 category at baseline for ART and No-ART | ||
CD4 < 50 cells/ml | 0.372 (0.349–0.395) | |
CD4 50–199 cells/ml | 0.628 (0.605–0.651) | |
Probabilities of transitioning between alive Markov states | ||
First-line regimen to second-line regimen | ||
0–6 months | N/A – no patients switched | |
6–12 months | 0.48% switched by 12 months | 0.002 (0.001–0.006) |
12–24 months | 4.66% switched by 24 months | 0.011 (0.007–0.015) |
24–36 months | 11.73% switched by 36 months | 0.019 (0.014–0.026) |
36–48 months | 15.9% switched by 48 months | 0.012 (0.005–0.024) |
>48 months | Average over 0–48 months | 0.011 (0.007–0.017) |
No-ART, CD4 50–199 cells/ml to CD4 < 50 cells/ml | ||
all quarters | Calculated to ensure 50% surviving at 24 months | 0.040 (0.026–0.043) |
Probabilities of transitioning to dead Markov states | ||
ART CD4 < 50 cells/ml | ||
0–3 months | 86.9% surviving at 3 months | 0.131 (0.107–0.159) |
3–6 months | 83.9% surviving at 6 months | 0.034 (0.031–0.038) |
ART CD4 50–199 cells/ml | ||
0–3 months | 95.9% surviving at 3 months | 0.041 (0.030–0.054) |
3–6 months | 93.9% suriviving at 6 months | 0.021 (0.019–0.024) |
All patients on ART, irrespective of regimen | ||
6–12 months | 86.9% suriviving at 12 months | 0.018 (0.017–0.020) |
12–24 months | 83.4% suriviving at 24 months | 0.010 (0.008–0.012) |
24–36 months | 79.5% surviving at 36 months | 0.012 (0.009–0.016) |
36–48 months | 76.2% suriviving at 48 months | 0.010 (0.005–0.017) |
>48 months | Average over 0–48 months | 0.017 (0.013–0.021) |
No ART CD4 count < 50 cells/ml | ||
all quarters | 20% surviving at 24 months1 | 0.182 (0.147–0.227) |
No ART CD4 50–199 cells/ml | ||
all quarters | 50% surviving at 24 months with CD4 < 200 cells/ml2 divided by hazard ratio3 | 0.039 (0.034–0.043) |