Modelling the cost-effectiveness of a new infant vaccine to prevent tuberculosis disease in children in South Africa

Table 1 Model parameters: estimates of the probability of the events

	Probability % (range)	Reference
ARI and Annual risk of re-infection	3 (2-4)	[22–25] and expert opinion^a
Progressing to pulmonary TB
Age		Assuming an ARI of 3%, calculated using the provincial government Western Cape Department of Health electronic TB database, and expert opinion^a
0-2	54.19
3-5	20.37
6-10	6.60
Progressing to miliary TB
Age
0-2	0.22
3-5	0.10
6-10	0.04
Progressing to TB meningitis
Age
0-2	0.52
3-5	0.14
6-10	0.10
Dying from pulmonary TB
Age
<3	0.75
3-5	0.09
>6	0.59	[26] , the provincial government Western Cape Department of Health electronic TB database, and expert opinion^a
Dying from miliary TB
Age
<3	23.53
3-5	9.09
>6	16.66
Dying from TB meningitis
Age
<3	25.00
3-5	26.66
>6	20.00
Dying from other causes		South African 2009 Life Tables [27] and adjusted to remove the risk of dying from TB, and expert opinion^a
Age
0-1	0.0429
1-2	0.0047
3-4	0.0049
5	0.0014
6-10	0.0014
10	0.0012
MVA85A efficacy against disease	17.3 (12.3 – 22.3)^b
Up-take BCG		[21]
Up-take MVA85A	99.0 (98.5 – 99.5)	[28]
Drop-out rate DTP3 to MCV	85.0 (76.4 – 89.5)	Calculated
Discount rate_outcomes	14.0 (9.5 – 23.1)	[29]
Discount rate_costs	3 (0 – 6)	[30]
	3 (0 – 6)	[30]

^aExpert opinion provided by Professor Willem Hanekom, Dr Mark Hatherill, Professor Anneke Hesseling, Professor Helen McShane, Dr Hassan Mohammed, Dr Roxana Rustomjee, and Dr Michele Tameris.
^bIn order to assess the sensitivity of the ICER to the vaccine efficacy, we randomly assigned a range of +/-5% to the clinical trial efficacy of 17.3%.

ISSN: 1478-7547