Table 1 Base case parameters and sensitivity analysis parameters used in modeling cervical cancer in HIV-infected women

Start age

38

30–46

N/A

N/A

[7]

Initial prevalence of cancer and pre-cancerous lesions

0.22

0.18–0.27

0.33

0.12

[7]

Initial prevalence

 Among cancer/pre-cancerous lesions

  Low grade lesions

0

N/A

N/A

N/A

[12, 23]

  High grade lesions

0.952

0.762–1

N/A

1

  Local cancer

0.020

0.016–0.024

N/A

0

  Regional cancer

0.024

0.019–0.029

N/A

0

  Distant cancer

0.004

0.003–0.005

N/A

0

 Among normal

  Low grade lesions

0.098

0.078–0.118

0.169

0.025

[23]

  Normal

0.902

0.722–1

0.832

0.975

Loss-to-follow-up probability

 2-visit

0.32

0–0.4

N/A

N/A

[29, 52]

 3-visit

0.48

0.3–0.6

N/A

N/A

[29, 52]

Standardized mortality ratio for treated HIV-infected patients compared to HIV negative

1.77

1.42–2.12

2.54

1

[53]

Untreated cancer parameter

 Cancer mortality probability (monthly)

  Local

0.004

0.003–0.005

N/A

N/A

[24]

  Regional

0.021

0.017–0.025

N/A

N/A

  Distant

0.063

0.051–0.076

N/A

N/A

 Progression probability (monthly)

  Normal to low grade lesions

0.001

0.000–0.002

N/A

0.000

[23, 24]

  Low grade to high grade lesions

0.003

0.002–0.004

N/A

0.001

  High grade lesions to local invasive cancer

0.002

0.001–0.003

N/A

0.002

  Local to regional invasive cancer

0.003

0.002–0.004

N/A

N/A

  Regional to distant invasive cancer

0.003

0.002–0.004

N/A

N/A

 Regression probability (monthly)

  Low grade lesions to normal

0.003

0.002–0.004

N/A

N/A

[24]

  High grade to low grade lesions

0.000

0.000–0.001

N/A

N/A

  High grade lesions to normal

0.000

0.000–0.001

N/A

N/A

Treated cancer parameters

 Treatment effectiveness (mortality, progression, lesion regression)

0.9

0.7–1

N/A

N/A

[11]

 Treated cancer cure probability (monthly)

0.15

0.12–0.18

N/A

N/A

[12]

 Side effect probability (monthly)

0.01

0.00–0.02

N/A

N/A

[13]

 Probability side effect is Major

0.16

0.13–0.20

N/A

N/A

Sensitivity

[7]

 Pap

0.74

0.59–0.89

0.76

0.61

 VIA

0.61

0.49–0.73

0.76

0.52

 HPV

0.81

0.65–0.97

0.92

0.83

 VIA + HPV

0.58

0.46–0.70

N/A

N/A

 VIA + Pap

0.51

0.41–0.61

N/A

N/A

 HPV + Pap

0.63

0.50–0.76

N/A

N/A

Specificity

[7]

 Pap

0.98

0.78–1

0.93

0.98

 VIA

0.63

0.50–0.76

0.62

0.73

 HPV

0.55

0.44–0.66

0.46

0.62

 VIA + HPV

0.84

0.67–1

N/A

N/A

 VIA + Pap

0.99

0.79–1

N/A

N/A

 HPV + Pap

0.99

0.79–1

N/A

N/A

Screening

[31]

 PAP

$39

$24

$31–$47

N/A

N/A

 VIA

$18

$10

$14–$22

N/A

N/A

 HPV (CareHPV)

$32

$18

$26–$38

N/A

N/A

Treatment

 Cryotherapy

$48

$12

$38–$58

N/A

N/A

 Colposcopy

$160

$109

$128–$192

N/A

N/A

 LEEP

$86

$20

$69–$103

N/A

N/A

Side effects

 Major

$974

$847

$779–$1169

N/A

N/A

 Minor

$203

$178

$162–$244

N/A

N/A

Cancer care

 Local

$1135

$112

$908–$1362

N/A

N/A

 Regional

$6447

$149

$5158–$7736

N/A

N/A

 Distant

$5107

$144

$4086–$6128

N/A

N/A

 Palliative care

$196

$145

$157–$235

N/A

N/A