Table 2 Effectiveness assumption used in the model expressed in percentage reduction in the outcome of interest

Acute myocardial infarction

 Aspirin

28 day mortality

22 (15, 29)

[31, 36]

 ACE-inhibitor

28 day mortality

7 (2, 11)

[37, 40]

 Beta-blocker

28 day mortality

13 (2, 23)

[37, 40]

 Streptokinase

28 day mortality

26 (17, 31)

[36]

 ASA + clopidogrel

28 day mortality

32 (17, 47)

[31, 34]

 PCI

28 day mortality

61 (38, 75)

[33, 36, 41]

Post-acute myocardial infarction

 Aspirin

Case fatality rate

13 (2, 22)

[31, 66]

 ACE-inhibitor

Case fatality rate

23 (14, 30)

[42]

 Beta-blocker

Case fatality rate

23 (16, 30)

[43]

 Statin

Case fatality rate

19 (15, 24)

[44, 67]

Acute ischemic stroke

 Aspirin

28 day case fatality rate

5 (1, 9)

[31]

Post-acute stroke

 Aspirin

Case fatality rate

16 (2, 29)

[31]

 ACE-inhibitor

Case fatality rate

16 (12, 30)

[45]

 Statin

Case fatality rate

24 (16, 37)

[35]

Primary prevention of IHD and stroke

 Anti-hypertensive treatment for systolic blood pressure (>140 or >160 mmHg)

Difference between actual systolic blood pressure and 115 mmHg

33 (31, 44)

[40, 46, 68]

 Cholesterol lowering treatment for total cholesterol (>5.7 or >6.2 mmol/l)

Serum level of total cholesterol

20 (17, 23)

[27, 44]

 Combination drug treatment for absolute risk of CVD (>5, >15, >25, >35 %)

Effect on the level of systolic blood pressure plus serum cholesterol plus aspirin

(33) + (20) + (18)

[27, 40, 44, 46, 66, 68]