From: System dynamics model of cervical cancer vaccination and screening interventions in Kenya
Factor[s] | Value | Source of information | Notes |
---|---|---|---|
Cervical cancer BASE CASE [Year 2010] | Â | Â | Â |
Prevalence rate | 38.8 | [1] | Â |
Crude Incidence rate/100000 | 16.5 | [1] | Year 2009 |
Number of deaths | 2100 | [1] | Â |
Number of cases | 4178 | [1] | Â |
No diagnosed with cervical cancer each year | 2635 | [1] | Â |
2011 life expectancy in Kenya | 60.7 | Â | Â |
Average age of onset of cervical cancer | 45 Years | Baseline survey | Â |
Average duration of cervical cancer | 7.5years | Experts opinion | Â |
DALY assumptions for cancer | Â | Â | Â |
Age of onset of death or disability in years [a] | 40. | Baseline survey | Â |
Disability weight [D] | 0.81 | Â | Â |
Percent of surviving cases with sequelae | 0% | Expert opinion | Assumed all eventually will die from Ca Cervix |
Mortality to incidence ratio | .55 | [1] | Â |
Mortality from other causes not directly connected to Cancer of Cervix | 0.008 | Experts opinion | This was considered insignificant hence not modeled. |
Crude mortality rate | 13.2 | [2] | Â |
Age-standardized mortality rate | 23.4 | [2] | Â |
Screening coverage rate within 3 years | 3.2 | [2] | Â |
Rate of primary vaccination | 0.01 | Experts opinion | Limited data available |
Rate of secondary vaccination | 0.03 | Experts opinion | Limited data available |
No of primary vaccinations required to avert one case of Ca cervix | 250 | [3] | Assuming a life time protection |
No of primary vaccinations required to avert one case of Ca cervix | 600 | [3] | Assuming waning off of vaccine protection after 10 years. |
No of secondary/catch up vaccinations required to avert one case of Ca cervix | 324 | [3]. | Â |
E-health usage | Â | Â | Â |
Percentage with access to internet | 7.5 | Baseline survey | Â |
Percentage with access to mobile phone | 96 | Baseline survey | Â |
Percentage with positive attitude towards use of e-health | 95 | Baseline survey | Â |
PROGNOSIS OF undiagnosed Ca. cervix | Â | Â | Â |
Percentage of death from invasive cancer | 33 | [4] | Â |
time span between infection of HPV and development of carcinoma in Situ | 7 to 15 years | [5] | Â |
Years taken by precancerous cells to progress to cancerous cells | 5 | [5] | Â |
Percentage of progress from precancerous stage to undiagnosed stage one | 3 – 10% |  | |
Percentage of regression from precancerous stage to ‘clean’ state through immune reaction | 90-97% |  | |
Progression of undiagnosed cancer from stage 2 to Stage 3 | 40% | [6] | Â |
Progression of Undiagnosed cancer from stage 3 to stage 4 | 80% | [6] | Â |
PROGNOSIS OF diagnosed Ca. cervix | Â | Â | Â |
Treatment impact/five year survival rate | Â | Â | Â |
Early intervention survival rate | 92% | [6] | .277 |
Stage 1 survival rate | 90% | [6] | .271 |
Stage 2 survival rate | 60-80% | [6] | Average 70% used in this model |
.211 | |||
Stage 3 survival rate | 50% | [6] | .151 |
Stage 4 survival rate | Less than 30% | [6] | 30% used in this model .091 |